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Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy on employment via a bank lending channel. We find that banks with higher mortgage-backed securities holdings issued relatively more loans after the first and third rounds of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE3). While additional volume is concentrated in refinanced mortgages after QE1, increases are driven by newly originated home purchase mortgages and additional commercial and industrial lending after QE3. Using spatial variation, we show that regions with a high share of affected banks experienced stronger employment growth after both, QE1 and QE3. While the ability of households to refinance mortgages after QE1 spurred local demand, the resulting additional employment growth was relatively weak and confined to the non-tradable goods sector. In contrast, the increase in overall employment after QE3 is sizable and can be attributed to the supply of additional credit to firms. To s upport this finding, we use new confidential loan-level data to show that firms with stronger ties to affected banks increased employment and capital investment more after QE3. Altogether, our findings suggest that unconventional monetary policy can, similar to conventional monetary policy, affect real economic outcomes.

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  • Stephan Luck & Tom Zimmermann, 2018. "Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-71
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.071
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    Cited by:

    1. Kapoor, Supriya & Peia, Oana, 2021. "The impact of quantitative easing on liquidity creation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Supriya Kapoor & Oana Peia, 2020. "The Impact of Quantitative Easing on Liquidity Creation," Working Papers 202009, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Fergus Cumming, 2019. "Mortgage Cash-flows and Employment," Discussion Papers 1922, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    4. Cumming, Fergus, 2018. "Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment," Bank of England working papers 773, Bank of England.
    5. Cahn, Christophe & Duquerroy, Anne & Mullins, William, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships," SocArXiv vgk25, Center for Open Science.
    6. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Working Paper Series 2521, European Central Bank.
    7. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    8. Martina Jasova & Caterina Mendicino & Dominik Supera, 2018. "Rollover Risk and Bank Lending Behavior: Evidence from Unconventional Central Bank Liquidity," 2018 Meeting Papers 500, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Goetz, Martin, 2019. "Financing conditions and toxic emissions," SAFE Working Paper Series 254, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2020. "How Did Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect Economic Forecasts?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 206-220, January.
    11. Johannes F. Wieland & Mu‐Jeung Yang, 2020. "Financial Dampening," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 79-113, February.
    12. Jasova, Martina & Mendicino, Caterina & Supera, Dominik, 2021. "Policy uncertainty, lender of last resort and the real economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 381-398.
    13. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2018. "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-04, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    14. Spokeviciute, Laima & Keasey, Kevin & Vallascas, Francesco, 2019. "Do financial crises cleanse the banking industry? Evidence from US commercial bank exits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 222-236.
    15. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    16. Arikan, Cengiz & Yalcin, Yeliz, 2017. "Do The Countries’ Monetary Policies Have Spatial Impact?," MPRA Paper 83407, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Lending; Central Banking; Employment; Financial Crisis; Quantitative Easing; Real Effects; Unconventional Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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