IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22638.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Di Maggio
  • Amir Kermani
  • Christopher Palmer

Abstract

Despite massive large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) by central banks around the world since the global financial crisis, there is a lack of empirical evidence on whether and how these programs affect the real economy. Using rich borrower-linked mortgage-market data, we document that there is a “flypaper effect” of LSAPs, where the transmission of unconventional monetary policy to interest rates and (more importantly) origination volumes depends crucially on the assets purchased and degree of segmentation in the market. For example, QE1, which involved significant purchases of GSE-guaranteed mortgages, increased GSE-eligible mortgage originations significantly more than the origination of GSE-ineligible mortgages. In contrast, QE2’s focus on purchasing Treasuries did not have such differential effects. We find that the Fed’s purchase of MBS (rather than exclusively Treasuries) during QE1 resulted in an additional $600 billion of refinancing, substantially reducing interest payments for refinancing households, leading to a boom in equity extraction, and increasing consumption by an additional $76 billion. This de facto allocation of credit across mortgage market segments, combined with sharp bunching around GSE eligibility cutoffs, establishes an important complementarity between monetary policy and macroprudential housing policy. Our counterfactual simulations estimate that relaxing GSE eligibility requirements would have significantly increased refinancing activity in response to QE1, including a 20% increase in equity extraction by households. Overall, our results imply that central banks could most effectively provide unconventional monetary stimulus by supporting the origination of debt that would not be originated otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher Palmer, 2016. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 22638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22638
    Note: AP CF EFG ME PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22638.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles W. Calomiris & Urooj Khan, 2015. "An Assessment of TARP Assistance to Financial Institutions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 53-80, Spring.
    2. Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(1), pages 57-95.
    3. Jean-Luc Vila & Dimitri Vayanos, 2009. "A Preferred-Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," FMG Discussion Papers dp641, Financial Markets Group.
    4. Sumit Agarwal & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Neale Mahoney & Johannes Ströbel, 2015. "Do Banks Pass Through Credit Expansions? The Marginal Profitability of Consumer Lending During the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 5521, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2013. "Banks Exposure to Interest Rate Risk and The Transmission of Monetary Policy," IDEI Working Papers 800, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    6. Johannes Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2012. "Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 1-42, June.
    7. Adam Ashcraft & Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Two Monetary Tools: Interest Rates and Haircuts," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, Volume 25, pages 143-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chris Downing & Dwight Jaffee, 2009. "Is the Market for Mortgage-Backed Securities a Market for Lemons?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2257-2294, July.
    9. Vincent Sterk & Silvana Tenreyro, 2013. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Operations through Redistributions and Durable Purchases," CEP Discussion Papers dp1249, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    11. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "House Prices, Home Equity-Based Borrowing, and the US Household Leverage Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2132-2156, August.
    12. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    13. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    14. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326, August.
    15. Naohiko Baba & Motoharu Nakashima & Yosuke Shigemi & Kazuo Ueda, 2006. "The Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy and Bank Risk Premiums in the Money Market," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    16. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    17. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kallal, Hedi D., 1997. "Thin Markets, Asymmetric Information, and Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 64-86, January.
    18. Chernenko, Sergey & Hanson, Samuel Gregory & Sunderam, Adi, 2014. "The Rise and Fall of Demand for Securitizations," Working Paper Series 2014-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    19. Amromin, Eugene & Kearns, Caitlin, 2014. "Access to Refinancing and Mortgage Interest Rates: HARPing on the Importance of Competition," Working Paper Series WP-2014-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. James Vickery & Joshua Wright, 2013. "TBA trading and liquidity in the agency MBS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 1-18.
    21. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
    22. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    23. Vanasco, Victoria, 2014. "Information Acquisition vs. Liquidity in Financial Markets," Research Papers 3248, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    24. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    25. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    26. Brunner, Karl, et al, 1973. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Moderate Inflation: Case Studies of Three Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 313-353, Part II F.
    27. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2014. "Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 20561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Asani Sarkar & Jeffrey Shrader, 2010. "Financial amplification mechanisms and the Federal Reserve’s supply of liquidity during the crisis," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 55-74.
    29. David S. Scharfstein & Adi Sunderam, 2013. "Concentration in Mortgage Lending, Refinancing Activity and Mortgage Rates," NBER Working Papers 19156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Foley-Fisher, Nathan & Ramcharan, Rodney & Yu, Edison, 2016. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on firm financing constraints: Evidence from the maturity extension program," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 409-429.
    31. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    32. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Lorenz Kueng & John Silvia, 2012. "Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 18170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Sergey Chernenko & Samuel G. Hanson & Adi Sunderam, 2014. "The Rise and Fall of Demand for Securitizations," NBER Working Papers 20777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Stephen D. Williamson, 2012. "Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and the Financial Crisis: A New Monetarist Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2570-2605, October.
    35. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Anthony A. DeFusco & Andrew Paciorek, 2017. "The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 210-240, February.
    37. Best, Michael Carlos & Cloyne, James & Ilzetzki, Ethan & Kleven, Henrik Jacobsen, 2015. "Interest rates, debt and intertemporal allocation: evidence from notched mortgage contracts in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 543, Bank of England.
    38. Rodney Ramcharan & Amir Kermani & Marco Di Maggio, 2015. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging," 2015 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    39. Fuster, Andreas & Goodman, Laurie & Lucca, David O. & Madar, Laurel & Molloy, Linsey & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "The rising gap between primary and secondary mortgage rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 17-39.
    40. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    41. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tim Landvoigt & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program," NBER Working Papers 21512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Crosignani & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Luís Fonseca, 2016. "The (unintended?) consequences of the largest liquidity injection ever," ESRB Working Paper Series 31, European Systemic Risk Board.
    2. Acharya, Viral V & Eisert, Tim & Eufinger, Christian & Hirsch, Christian, 2017. "Whatever it takes: The Real Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 12005, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Kandrac, John & Schlusche, Bernd, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Bank Risk Taking: Evidence from Lending," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Fuster, Andreas & Plosser, Matthew & Schnabl, Philipp & Vickery, James, 2018. "The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 12961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. C. Cahn & A. Duquerroy & W. Mullins, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Bank Lending Relationships," Working papers 659, Banque de France.
    6. Phil Molyneux & Rue Xie & John Thornton & Alessio Reghezza, 2017. "Did Negative Interest Rates Impact Bank Lending?," Working Papers 17002, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    7. Robert J. Kurtzman & Stephan Luck & Thomas Zimmermann, 2017. "Did QE Lead Banks to Relax Their Lending Standards? Evidence from the Federal Reserve's LSAPs," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-093, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. repec:erc:cypepr:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:19-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Óscar Arce & Ricardo Gimeno & Sergio Mayordomo, 2017. "Making room for the needy: the credit-reallocation effects of the ECB’s corporate QE," Working Papers 1743, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Enrico Sette, 2017. "Monetary policy at work: Security and credit application registers evidence," Working Papers 964, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    11. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2018. "Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2018-03, CEPII research center.
    12. Philip Molyneux & Alessio Reghezza & Ru Xie, 2018. "Bank Profits and Margins in a World of Negative Rates," Working Papers 18001, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    13. Bergant, Katharina, 2017. "Quantitative Easing and Portfolio Rebalancing: Micro Evidence from Irish Resident Banks," Economic Letters 07/EL/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. Abel, Joshua & Fuster, Andreas, 2018. "How do mortgage refinances affect debt, default, and spending? Evidence from HARP," Staff Reports 841, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.