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Analiza međuovisnosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava u Hrvatskoj

In: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Modeli razvoja hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska akademija znanosti i umjetnosti)

Author

Listed:
  • Tamara Slišković

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb)

Abstract

Trendovi na stambenom tržištu usko su povezani s događanjima u makroekonomskom okruženju nekog gospodarstva. U postojećoj literaturi, teoretski modeli povezanosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava predviđaju mogućnost dvosmjernog međusobnog utjecaja. S jedne strane, fluktuacije na stambenom tržištu pod utjecajem su sveukupnih gospodarskih kretanja, dok, s druge strane, zbivanja na stambenom tržištu kroz različite kanale mogu povratno utjecati na ponašanje gospodarstva u cjelini. Stoga se kao glavni cilj ovoga rada postavlja utvrđivanje obrazaca međusobne ovisnosti makroekonomskog sustava i stambenog tržišta u Hrvatskoj. Pri tome je naglasak na cijenama stambenog prostora i pokazateljima nove stambene izgradnje kao varijablama kretanja na stambenom tržištu te na pokazateljima agregatne ekonomske aktivnosti, ali i varijablama iz bankovnog sektora koje odražavaju cjelokupno stanje gospodarstva. Analiza navedene međuovisnosti provodi se u okviru modela vektorske autoregresije (VAR model), kao i provođenjem testova Grangerove uzročnosti. Rezultati provedene analize ukazuju kako su, u hrvatskom slučaju, izraženiji učinci koje kretanja u makroekonomskim i bankovnim varijablama imaju na stambeno tržište, dok su povratni učinci prilično slabo izraženi. Obrasci ponašanja u određenoj mjeri su očekivani i u skladu sa smjerom koji predviđa teorija, no prisutne su i pojedine atipičnosti glede istraživane međuovisnosti.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamara Slišković, 2018. "Analiza međuovisnosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava u Hrvatskoj," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Macroeconomics), in: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Modeli razvoja hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska aka, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 247-280, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:chaptr:18-11
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