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House price determinants in transition and EU-15 countries

Author

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  • Petra Posedel
  • Maruska Vizek

Abstract

This article studies house price developments in six European countries: Croatia, Estonia, Poland, Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom. The main goal is to explore the factors driving the rise of house prices in transition countries. Because house price increases in the last two decades are not peculiar to transition countries, the analysis is extended to three EU-15 countries that have recorded house price rises. The similarities and differences between the two groups of countries in terms of house price determinants can thus be explored. In the first part of the empirical analysis VAR is employed to detect how GDP, housing loans, interest rates and construction contribute to real house price variance. In the second part of the analysis multiple regression models are estimated. The results of both methods suggest that the driving forces behind house price inflation in both groups of countries are very similar and encompass the combined influence of house price persistence, income and interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Posedel & Maruska Vizek, 2009. "House price determinants in transition and EU-15 countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 327-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:21:y:2009:i:3:p:327-343
    DOI: 10.1080/14631370903090640
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Trond-Arne Borgersen & Roswitha M. King, 2022. "Leading Gains and Funding Risk in Baltic Housing Markets," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 10(3), pages 105-119.
    2. Ksenija Dumičić & Anita Časni & Irena Palić, 2013. "The short-run and long-run behaviour of personal consumption in Croatia," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 21(1), pages 3-11, June.
    3. Petros Sivitanides, 2015. "Macroeconomic Influences on Cyprus House Prices: 2006Q1- 2014Q2," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 9(1), pages 3-22, June.
    4. Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2011. "Are House Prices Characterized by Threshold Effects? Evidence from Developed and Post-Transition Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 584-600, December.
    5. Amina Ahec �onje & Anita Ceh Casni & Maru�ka Vizek, 2012. "Does housing wealth affect private consumption in European post-transition countries? Evidence from linear and threshold models," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 73-85, June.
    6. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:560:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tamara Slišković, 2018. "Analiza međuovisnosti stambenog tržišta i makroekonomskog sustava u Hrvatskoj," EFZG Occasional Publications (Department of Macroeconomics), in: Zbornik radova znanstvenog skupa: Modeli razvoja hrvatskog gospodarstva, (ur. Družić, G.; Družić, I., izdavač: Ekonomski fakultet Zagreb; Hrvatska aka, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 247-280, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    8. Kun Duan & Tapas Mishra & Mamata Parhi & Simon Wolfe, 2019. "How Effective are Policy Interventions in a Spatially-Embedded International Real Estate Market?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 596-637, May.
    9. Maryam Akbari Nasiri, 2020. "How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? A Duration Analysis For Emerging Economies," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 23(2), pages 179-200, July.
    10. Mato Njavro & Petra Posedel & Maruška Vizek, 2016. "Regime Switching Behaviour of Real Estate and Equity Prices in Emerging Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 396-410.
    11. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Čeh Časni, Anita & Vizek, Maruška, 2014. "The effect of housing and stock market wealth on consumption in emerging and developed countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 433-450.
    12. Maruška Vizek, 2011. "The Influence of Stock Market and Housing Wealth on Consumption Expenditures in Transition Countries," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 3(1).

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