Leading Gains and Funding Risk in Baltic Housing Markets

This paper analyzes lending gains and funding risk in the Baltic housing markets. Transition economies are exposed to both cycles and structural shifts, relating housing market fundamentals to a more diversified set of processes than in mature economies. Still, as housing is a non-tradable good, transition allows for high rates of appreciation. When house price growth exceeds the mortgage rate, there are lending gains from mortgage-financed housing. As higher leverage increases funding risk, a challenge emerges for transition economies, which are in a monetary union with mature economies. Asymmetric shocks to housing markets may threaten financial stability as the monetary policy does not respond to country-specific house price bubbles. In addition to a discussion on asymmetric shocks and the role of housing, the paper offers an illustration of the lending gain and the funding risk that housing markets in transition economies may entail. The paper simulates the return to housing equity across the Baltic states over the period 2010-2020. While a strong housing market has provided Estonian households with the highest price gains, both Latvian and Lithuanian households have taken advantage of the deepening monetary integration towards the end of the period. Still, the more volatile housing markets in the two southernmost Baltic states make leverage set its mark on the risk-return profile.