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Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe

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  • Mr. Serhan Cevik
  • Sadhna Naik

Abstract

Households across Europe are struggling with a double crisis—the worst inflation shock since the World War II and a sudden correction in house prices. There is a rich literature on how housing price cycles affect consumer spending, finding mixed results with a wide range of consumption responses to changes in housing wealth. In this paper, using quarterly data on 20 countries in Europe over the period 1980–2023, we analyze the dynamic relationship between inflation-adjusted housing wealth and consumer spending and obtain statistically significant and economically intuitive results. Household consumption responds positively and swiftly to changes in real house prices and gross disposable income as expected. Using the estimated coefficients, we can deduce that the average quarter-on-quarter decline of -1.96 percent in real house prices in the first quarter of 2023 in Europe could dampen consumer spending by about -0.51 percentage points in real terms on a cumulative basis over a horizon of eight quarters.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2023. "Feeling Rich, Feeling Poor: Housing Wealth Effects and Consumption in Europe," IMF Working Papers 2023/256, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2023/256
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; wealth effects; consumer spending; Europe; housing price cycle; housing wealth effect; household consumption growth; property price dataset; price unit; consumer spending growth; depressing housing price; cost of capital; housing prices in the CEE region; house price movement; house price cycle; housing wealth; Housing prices; Disposable income; Housing; Private consumption; Income;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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