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Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit. Evidence from Norway

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Abstract

The interaction between housing prices and household borrowing in Norway is estimated in a simultaneous setting in the long and the short run. The long run dependence is analyzed within a cointegrated vector autoregression in real housing prices, real disposable household income and real household debt, conditioning on the real after tax interest rate, the number of house transactions and the volume of housing capital. We identify two cointegrating equations which determine equilibrium housing prices and household debt, respectively. The long run equations are embedded in a system of two error-correction equations which is estimated simultaneously. The model yields meaningful short and long term effects when estimated on the sample 1986q2-2008q4 and impulse responses demonstrate that there are self reinforcing feedback effects between the two variables of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2011. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit. Evidence from Norway," Discussion Papers 651, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:651
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    Cited by:

    1. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lee, Yen Hsien & Wu, Meng-Wen & Guo, Na, 2016. "Does housing boom lead to credit boom or is it the other way around? The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 349-367.
    2. Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne, 2013. "The relations between bank-funding costs, retail rates, and loan volumes. Evidence form Norwegian microdata," Discussion Papers 742, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne, 2012. "The relation between banks' funding costs, retail rates and loan volumes: An analysis of Norwegian bank micro data," Working Paper 2012/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Arvid Raknerud & Bjørn Helge Vatne & Ketil Rakkestad, 2011. "How do banks' funding costs affect interest margins?," Discussion Papers 665, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; household borrowing; financial accelerator;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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