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House Prices, Credit And Willingness To Lend


  • Sarah J. Carrington
  • Jakob B. Madsen


This paper establishes a Tobin’s q model in which house prices fluctuate around their long run equilibrium due to fluctuations in credit availability and income. It is shown that house prices are positively related to credit in the short run, however, negatively related to the availability of credit in the long run. Using survey data on banks’ willingness to lend and data on disintermediation for the US it is shown that the availability of credit is the principal variable driving house prices around their long run equilibrium. Shocks to interest rates and income have only secondary effects on house price fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah J. Carrington & Jakob B. Madsen, 2011. "House Prices, Credit And Willingness To Lend," Economics Series 2011_3, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2011_3

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2008. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the 2007 Mortgage Default Crisis," NBER Working Papers 13936, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Christian Julliard, 2008. "Money Illusion and Housing Frenzies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(1), pages 135-180, January.
    3. Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 1997. "Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1701-1727, November.
    4. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
    5. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Madsen, Jakob B., 2009. "Taxes and the fundamental value of houses," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 365-376, May.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1988. "Money, Credit, and Business Fluctuations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 307-322, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jakob B Madsen & Hui Yao, 2012. "Wealth Effects In Consumption: The Financial Accelerator And Banks’ Willingness To Lend," Monash Economics Working Papers 56-12, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Jakob B Madsen, 2011. "A Repayment Model of House Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 09-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. Madsen, Jakob B., 2012. "A behavioral model of house prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 21-38.
    4. André K. Anundsen & Eilev S. Jansen, 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit: an extended version," Discussion Papers 756, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    5. Anundsen, André K. & Jansen, Eilev S., 2013. "Self-reinforcing effects between housing prices and credit," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 192-212.
    6. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.

    More about this item


    Willingness to lend; Tobin’s q. House prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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