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Why are Irish house prices still falling?

  • Kennedy, Gerard

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

In this note, the continued fall in Irish house prices is examined. The increased rate of decline in 2011 resulted in Irish prices being almost 50 per cent down from peak levels of mid 2007. Accordingly, in over forty years of house price data, the fall is now one of the most significant across the OECD. We outline the current state of activity in the housing market and, using a suite of models, assess whether the fall in house prices is in line with that suggested by current fundamental factors within the Irish economy. Given that the analysis suggests prices may have overcorrected since 2010 we discuss possible reasons for this continued decline.

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File URL: http://www.centralbank.ie/publications/Documents/HP_Let5.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Economic Letters with number 05/EL/12.

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Date of creation: Apr 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:05/el/12
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  1. Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2009. "Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 40(4), pages 371-392.
  2. Kieran McQuinn & Nuala O’Donnell & Mary Ryan, 2005. "Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model," Chapters, in: Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 11 Edward Elgar.
  3. Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
  4. Agustin Benetrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2011. "How Housing Slumps End," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp384, IIIS.
  5. McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
  6. Kennedy, Gerard & McQuinn, Kieran, 2011. "Scenarios for Irish House Prices," Economic Letters 02/EL/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
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