Scenarios for Irish House Prices
In this note, a recently published model of the Irish residential mortgage market is used to generate likely scenarios for Irish house prices out to 2013. The model allows for the interaction between house prices and mortgage credit as well as key macroeconomic variables and housing supply. Future prices based on such models typically tend to assume that, where significant overvaluation has occured, prices correct back to some long-run equilibrium path. However, analysis of housing booms in a cross-country context reveals that prices often tend to overcorrect following a sustained house price boom. We discuss the results from our model in this context.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005.
"Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market,"
The Economic and Social Review,
Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272.
- Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2009.
"Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market,"
Research Technical Papers
9/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
- McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- repec:may:mayecw:n920799 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kieran McQuinn & Nuala Oâ€™Donnell & Mary Ryan, 2005. "Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model," Chapters, in: Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
- Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004.
"House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland,"
Research Technical Papers
5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
- Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094, December.
- Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:02/el/11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Fiona Farrelly)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.