Scenarios for Irish House Prices
In this note, a recently published model of the Irish residential mortgage market is used to generate likely scenarios for Irish house prices out to 2013. The model allows for the interaction between house prices and mortgage credit as well as key macroeconomic variables and housing supply. Future prices based on such models typically tend to assume that, where significant overvaluation has occured, prices correct back to some long-run equilibrium path. However, analysis of housing booms in a cross-country context reveals that prices often tend to overcorrect following a sustained house price boom. We discuss the results from our model in this context.
|Date of creation:||May 2011|
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"Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market,"
The Economic and Social Review,
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- McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- repec:may:mayecw:n920799 is not listed on IDEAS
- McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Kieran McQuinn & Nuala O’Donnell & Mary Ryan, 2005. "Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland's model," Chapters,in: Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks, chapter 11 Edward Elgar Publishing. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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