Scenarios for Irish House Prices
In this note, a recently published model of the Irish residential mortgage market is used to generate likely scenarios for Irish house prices out to 2013. The model allows for the interaction between house prices and mortgage credit as well as key macroeconomic variables and housing supply. Future prices based on such models typically tend to assume that, where significant overvaluation has occured, prices correct back to some long-run equilibrium path. However, analysis of housing booms in a cross-country context reveals that prices often tend to overcorrect following a sustained house price boom. We discuss the results from our model in this context.
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- Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004.
"House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland,"
Research Technical Papers
5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007. "House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
- David Duffy & John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 2005.
"Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market,"
WP166, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Addison-Smyth, Diarmaid & McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2009.
"Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market,"
Research Technical Papers
9/RT/09, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Roche, Maurice, 2003. "Will there be a Crash in Irish House Prices?," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2003(4-Winter), pages 1-16.
- Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
- repec:may:mayecw:n920799 is not listed on IDEAS
- McQuinn, Kieran & O' Reilly, Gerard, 2007. "A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- McQuinn, Kieran & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2006. "Assessing the Role of Income and Interest Rates in Determining House Prices," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Barrett, Alan & Kearney, Ide & Goggin, Jean & Conefrey, Thomas, 2009. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Winter 2009," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20094, March.
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