A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)
The widespread nature of the recent international house price boom suggests that the underlying forces behind this sustained price increase may be common across countries. Many OECD countries have, over the past decade, witnessed sustained increases in living standards while housing affordability has further improved in recent years with the low interest rate environment experienced by many of these countries. In this paper we propose a theoretical model of house price determination that is driven by changes in income and interest rates. In particular, the current level of income and interest rates determine how much an individual can borrow from financial institutions to purchase housing and ultimately this is a key driver of house prices. The model is applied to a panel of 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2005 using both single country-by-country and panel econometric approaches. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow and we find plausible and statistically significant adjustment, across countries, to this long run equilibrium.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box No. 559, Dame Street, Dublin 2|
Phone: (01) 671 6666
Fax: (01) 671 6561
Web page: http://www.centralbank.ie
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995.
"Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Peter Pedroni, 1999.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Muellbauer, J & Murphy, A, 1996.
"Booms and Busts in the UK Housing Market,"
125, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993.
"A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
- Tom Doan, . "SWDOLS: RATS procedure to estimate cointegrating vectors using dynamic OLS," Statistical Software Components RTS00207, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ceron, Jose A. & Suarez, Javier, 2006.
"Hot and Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989.
"The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market,"
Regional Science and Urban Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David N. Weil, 1988. "The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust, and the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 2794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Massimo GIULIODORI, 2002.
"Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries,"
164, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Massimo Giuliodori, 2004. "Monetary Policy Shocks and the Role of House Prices Across European Countries," DNB Working Papers 015, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Peter Pedroni, 2004.
"Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988.
"Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends,"
3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Shiller, R.J., 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings And Expected Dividends," Papers 334, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," NBER Working Papers 2511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Charles P. Himmelberg & Christopher J. Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005.
"Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions,"
218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
- Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan & Löthgren, Mickael, 1998.
"Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
250, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 27 Aug 1998.
- Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
NBER Working Papers
2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, July.
- Trevor Fitzpatrick & Kieran Mcquinn, 2007.
"House Prices And Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence For Ireland,"
University of Manchester, vol. 75(1), pages 82-103, 01.
- Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "House Prices and Mortgage Credit: Empirical Evidence for Ireland," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
- Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, 09.
- Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
- Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua H. Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:5/rt/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Smith)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.