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Potential effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market

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  • William T. Dickens
  • Robert K. Triest

Abstract

The effect of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market will likely persist even after economic output has recovered. Although the recession did not greatly change the relative probabilities of job loss for different types of workers, the long-run impact will vary by worker characteristics. Workers who lost long-term jobs during the Great Recession are at increased risk of future job loss due to the loss of protection afforded by long-term job tenure, and older displaced workers are at a relatively high risk of prolonged spells of unemployment and premature retirement. The recent increase in the job vacancy rate with relatively little change in the unemployment rate suggests a decrease in the efficiency of job matching and an increase in the NAIRU. However, this phenomenon may pass once aggregate demand has increased enough to bring vacancy rates back within their normal range and extended unemployment insurance programs have expired.

Suggested Citation

  • William T. Dickens & Robert K. Triest, 2012. "Potential effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. labor market," Working Papers 12-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbwp:12-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2013. "Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 19079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2013. "Beveridge Curve Shifts across Countries since the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 566-600, December.
    3. Anna Batyra & David de la Croix & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens, 2016. "Structural changes in the labor market and the rise of early retirement in Europe," CREA Discussion Paper Series 16-13, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
    4. Bart Hobijn, 2012. "The industry-occupation mix of U.S. job openings and hires," Working Paper Series 2012-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Hugo Erken & Eric van Loon & Wouter Verbeek, 2015. "Mismatch on the Dutch labour market in the Great Recession," CPB Discussion Paper 303, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Craighead, William, 2016. "Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model," MPRA Paper 70777, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Recessions ; Labor market;

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