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An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU


  • Moons, Cindy

    () (Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel (HUB), Belgium)


Given the importance of a high degree of homogeneity between the members states of the EMU, one of the research questions that this paper aims at answering is in determining the degree of heterogeneity between the UK and the EA. Furthermore, it is analyzed how an hypothetical membership of the UK affects the volatility of output and inflation in both economies. In addition, it is investigated whether changes in the objective function of the ECB, or more or less active fiscal policy, can decrease the losses of a membership. Overall, the results point at a high degree of homogeneity in de conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in both economies. However, results also point at heterogeneity in consumer behavior. While a membership would increase UK losses significantly, results show that automatic stabilizers can play an important role in reducing these losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Moons, Cindy, 2009. "An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU," Working Papers 2009/23, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:hub:wpecon:200923

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eric Jondeau & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2008. "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-Country Heterogeneity," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 23-72, June.
    2. Fritz Breuss & Katrin Rabitsch, 2009. "An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 123-158, February.
    3. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    4. Joseph Plasmans & Tomasz Michalak & Jorge Fornero, 2006. "Simulation, estimation and welfare implications of monetary policies in a 3-country NOEM model," Working Paper Research 94, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    6. Ernest Pytlarczyk, 2005. "An Estimated DSGE Model for The German Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 318, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Pau Rabanal, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 87, Society for Computational Economics.
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    More about this item


    Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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