Cyclical and Structural Deficits on the Road to Accession: Fiscal Rules for an Enlarged European Union
The Paper is one of the first attempts to compute cyclical and structural deficits for a set of countries candidate to accession to the EU. Three main results are derived: first, the high deficits observed in candidate countries in recent years have a structural nature. Second, the fiscal stance has been pro-cyclical in candidate countries. Finally, because of higher volatility of output in these countries, the risks of surpassing the 3% budget limit that applies to all members of the EU are much higher for them. Without changing existing rules in the European Union, it is likely that candidate countries will have to undertake costly and inefficient adjustments of the last minute. Recent proposals by the European Commission would improve matters for candidate countries, without however solving some of their major potential difficulties. The Paper suggests a new fiscal rule for an enlarged European Union, which is consistent with the philosophy of the Stability and growth Pact but focuses on ex ante limits to expenditure. Such a rule would imply that in periods of growth above trend, countries are forced to run budget surplus, while in periods of economic slack they will run deficits. The rule is fully consistent with the theory of optimal tax smoothing and would, at the same time, strengthen fiscal discipline.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- William Easterly & Sergio Rebelo, 1993.
"Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation,"
NBER Working Papers
4499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
- Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1994. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 885, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- M. Buti & D. Franco & H. Ongena, 1997.
"Budgetary Policies during Recessions - Retrospective Application of the "Stability and Growth Pact" to the Post-War Period,"
European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015
121, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Marco BUTI & Daniele FRANCO & Hedwig ONGENA, 1997. "Budgeetary Policies during Recessions : Retrospective Application of the Stability and Growth Pact” to the Post-War Period," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1997041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- András Simon & Zsolt Darvas, 2000. "Potential Output and Foreign Trade in Small Open Economies," MNB Working Papers 2000/9, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Buiter, Willem H. & Grafe, Clemens, 2002. "Patching up the Pact: some Suggestions for Enhancing Fiscal Sustainability and Macroeconomic Stability in an Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 3496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Attila Csajbók (ed.) & Ágnes Csermely (ed.), 2002. "Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing," MNB Occasional Papers 2002/24, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- André Sapir & Marco Buti, 1998. "Economic policy in EMU," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.