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Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact

  • Dury, Karen
  • Pina, Alvaro M.

We study the prospective operation of the Stability Pact by stochastic simulation. Using a forward-looking multi-country macroeconometric model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies, the Pact's provisions are formalized in detail, and alternative monetary and fiscal rules are compared.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 25 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 179-206

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:25:y:2003:i:2:p:179-206
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

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  1. Marco Buti & Werner Roeger & Jan In't Veld, 2001. "Stabilizing Output and Inflation: Policy Conflicts and Co-operation under a Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 801-828, December.
  2. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Artis, Michael J & Buti, Marco, 2000. ""Close to Balance or in Surplus": A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," CEPR Discussion Papers 2515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jürgen von Hagen & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Rolf Strauch, 2001. "Budgetary Consolidation in EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 148, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1991. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
  7. M. Buti & D. Franco & H. Ongena, 1997. "Budgetary Policies during Recessions - Retrospective Application of the "Stability and Growth Pact" to the Post-War Period," European Economy - Economic Papers 121, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  8. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-79, June.
  9. Roel Beetsma & Henrik Jensen, . "Risk Sharing and Moral Hazard with a Stability Pact," EPRU Working Paper Series 99-11, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  10. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from the U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1046-59, November.
  11. Bayoumi, Tamim & Goldstein, Morris & Woglom, Geoffrey, 1995. "Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from US States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. James M. Poterba & Kim S. Rueben, 1997. "State Fiscal Institutions and the U.S. Municipal Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 6237, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alessandra Casella, 1999. "Tradable deficit permits:efficient implementation of the Stability Pact in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 321-362, October.
  14. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  15. repec:nsr:niesrd:67 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Mitchell, Peter R. & Sault, Joanne E. & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2000. "Fiscal policy rules in macroeconomic models: principles and practice," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-193, April.
  17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521441964 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Ray C. Fair, 1993. "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 157-178 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
  20. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
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