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How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment

Author

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  • Barrell, R.
  • Pina, A.M.

Abstract

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2000/2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
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    10. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    12. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1990. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 381-392, Oct.-Dec..
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    16. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-279, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Veld & Martin Larch & Marieke Vandeweyer, 2013. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What They Are and What They Do," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 147-163, February.
    2. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
    3. Szapáry, György & Orbán, Gábor, 2004. "A stabilitási és növekedési paktum az új tagállamok szemszögéből
      [The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 810-831.
    4. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
    5. Barrell, Ray & Becker, Bettina & Byrne, Joseph & Gottschalk, Sylvia & Hurst, Ian & van Welsum, Desiree, 2004. "Macroeconomic policy in Europe: experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 877-931, September.
    6. Deborah Mabbett & Waltraud Schelkle, 2007. "Bringing Macroeconomics Back into the Political Economy of Reform: the Lisbon Agenda and the 'Fiscal Philosophy' of EMU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 81-103, March.
    7. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    8. Michael J. Artis & Marco Buti, 2000. "'Close-to-Balance or in Surplus': A Policy-Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 563-591, November.
    9. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Dury, Karen & Pina, Alvaro M., 2003. "Fiscal policy in EMU: simulating the operation of the Stability Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-206, February.
    11. Orban, Gabor & Szapary, Gyorgy, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the perspective of the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 839-864, October.
    12. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," Working Papers hal-00973049, HAL.
    13. Raphaël A. Espinoza, 2007. "Les stabilisateurs automatiques en France," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 1-17.
    14. Dinga, Emil & Ionescu, Cornel & Padurean, Elena, 2010. "Discretionary Policy versus Non-Discretionary Policy in the Economic Adjustment Process," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 184-207, December.
    15. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.
    16. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6152 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
    18. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.
    19. Kiander, Jaakko & Virén, Matti, 2000. "Do automatic stabilisers take care of asymmetric shocks in the euro area?," Discussion Papers 234, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Anne Brunila & Marco Buti & Jan In 'T Veld, 2003. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-24, March.
    21. Hiebert, Paul & Pérez, Javier J. & Rostagno, Massimo, 2009. "The trade-off between public debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 464-472, March.
    22. A.J. Hughes Hallett & Peter McAdam, 2003. "Deficit Targeting Strategies: Fiscal Consolidation and the Probability Distribution of Deficits under the Stability Pact," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 421-444, June.
    23. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile; The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Kilian Bizer & Zulia Gubaydullina & Hazim Rahahleh & Werner Sesselmeier, 2007. "FTPL-Perspective on Tradable Deficit Permits in the EMU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 35(3), pages 259-267, September.
    25. Barrell, R. & Hall, S.G. & Hurst, I., 2006. "Evaluating policy feedback rules using the joint density function of a stochastic model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 1-5, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    FISCAL POLICY ; STOCHASTIC MODELS ; SIMULATION;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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