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How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment

  • Barrell, Ray
  • Pina, Alvaro M.

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VB1-47X1W6R-2/2/35b3cf030a8d37fb8fafbf371c528f9e
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 21 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-35

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:21:y:2004:i:1:p:1-35
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1980. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 564, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Melitz, Jacques, 1997. "Some Cross-Country Evidence about Debt, Deficits and the Behaviour of Monetary and Fiscal Authorities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1653, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521632423 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
  5. repec:nsr:niesrd:46 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Peter Brandner & Leopold Diebalek & Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union," Working Papers 26, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  7. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-43, March.
  8. repec:sae:niesru:v:164:y::i:1:p:90-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  10. repec:sae:niesru:v:159:y::i:1:p:92-98 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1991. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Allsopp, Chris, et al, 1997. "Monetary and Fiscal Stabilization of Demand Shocks within Europe," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(4), pages 55-76, Supplemen.
  15. Barrell, R. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment," Economics Working Papers eco2000/2, European University Institute.
  16. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, 08.
  18. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output; Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
  20. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  21. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-79, June.
  22. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1995. "Restraining Yourself: The Implications of Fiscal Rules for Economic Stabilization," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 32-48, March.
  23. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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