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The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area

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  • Onorante, Luca
  • Pedregal, Diego J.
  • Pérez, Javier J.
  • Signorini, Sara

Abstract

Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. These indicators represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, they are not formally included in the European multilateral fiscal surveillance process, and have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing fiscal policies and fiscal forecasting in Europe. By focusing on a broad set of indicators (some 50 fiscal revenue and expenditure items for euro area countries) and a mixed-frequency state-space econometric model, we make a case for the use of monthly cash indicators for multilateral fiscal surveillance at the European level. Their formal use in the public discussion would certainly enhance the pre-emptive arm of the Stability and Growth Pact, making possible to acknowledge fiscal slippages early enough so that pressure to take corrective measures could be set on governments by EU institutions and the public at large.

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  • Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-119, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:32:y::i:1:p:98-119
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    2. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Metelli, Luca, 2017. "Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 147-164.
    3. Ferré, Montserrat, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty about countries’ compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 660-674.
    4. Jacopo Cimadomo & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016. "Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers in Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1276-1290, November.
    5. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    6. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Paper Series 1132, European Central Bank.
    7. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 271-326, January-M.
    8. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal policy analysis in the euro area: Expanding the toolkit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 800-823.
    9. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & Antonio Sánchez Fuentes, 2014. "A Tookit to strengthen Government," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 117-146, December.
    10. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
    11. Teresa Leal & Diego Pedregal & Javier Pérez, 2011. "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish government balance," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 97-119, March.
    12. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Serwa, Dobromił, 2016. "Market perception of sovereign credit risk in the euro area during the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 168-189.
    13. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    14. Warmedinger, Thomas & Paredes, Joan & Asimakopoulos, Stylianos, 2013. "Forecasting fiscal time series using mixed frequency data," Working Paper Series 1550, European Central Bank.
    15. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Moritz Kuhn & Thomas Warmedinger, 2012. "The gains from early intervention in Europe: Fiscal surveillance and fiscal planning using cash data," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 1(1), pages 44-65, June.
    16. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 794-807, October.
    17. Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez & A. Jesús Sánchez-Fuentes, 2014. "A toolkit to strengthen government budget surveillance," Working Papers 1416, Banco de España.
    18. Teresa Leal Linares & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Un sistema ARIMA con agregación temporal para la previsión y el seguimiento del déficit del Estado," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 190(3), pages 27-58, June.
    19. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    C53 E6 H6 Fiscal forecasting and monitoring Stability and Growth Pact Fiscal policies Euro area;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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