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Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Bianchi

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, Roma)

  • Tatiana Cesaroni

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Servizio Studi Dipartimentale)

  • Ottavio Ricchi

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Servizio Studi Dipartimentale)

Abstract

In this paper, we model and forecast monthly budget balance expenditures. The annual dimension of budget figures is integrated with an approach based on higher frequency data. To this end we develop an econometric model (disaggregated at expenditures category level) based on behavioral equations and budget balances identities linking data at different frequencies. The aggregate expenditure forecasts are obtained as a linear combination of the macroaggregates forecasts. This approach determines an improvement of forecast performance with respect to pure benchmark autoregressive models. The econometric model also represents a useful instrument to support the government forecasts based on more traditional tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 271-326, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:y:2013:i:1:p:271-326
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2015. "ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures," Working Papers LuissLab 15120, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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