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Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Bianchi

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato, Roma)

  • Tatiana Cesaroni

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Servizio Studi Dipartimentale)

  • Ottavio Ricchi

    (Ministero dell’Economia e delle Finanze - Ragioneria Generale dello Stato - Servizio Studi Dipartimentale)

Abstract

In this paper, we model and forecast monthly budget balance expenditures. The annual dimension of budget figures is integrated with an approach based on higher frequency data. To this end we develop an econometric model (disaggregated at expenditures category level) based on behavioral equations and budget balances identities linking data at different frequencies. The aggregate expenditure forecasts are obtained as a linear combination of the macroaggregates forecasts. This approach determines an improvement of forecast performance with respect to pure benchmark autoregressive models. The econometric model also represents a useful instrument to support the government forecasts based on more traditional tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 271-326, January-M.
    • Handle: RePEc:rpo:ripoec:y:2013:i:1:p:271-326
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Onorante, Luca & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J. & Signorini, Sara, 2010. "The usefulness of infra-annual government cash budgetary data for fiscal forecasting in the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 98-119, January.
    2. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 794-807, October.
    3. Teresa Leal & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish Government balance with mixed-frequencies models," Working Papers 0931, Banco de España.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2015. "ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures," Working Papers LuissLab 15120, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    state budget expenditures; infra annual financial indicators; econometric models; forecast performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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