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ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures


  • Giuseppe Bianchi


  • Tatiana Cesaroni


  • Ottavio Ricchi



In this paper we describe a pilot econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures (ISBEM). In search for leading indicators, we consider a newly available data set of the Italian State Budget financial microdata at monthly frequency that we use to estimate and forecast annual budget data. Early work on the issue is encompassed with the provision of a dynamic multiple equations model for the budget cycle linking data coming various budget phases (i.e. appropriations, expenditures commitments and payments) and disaggregated by budget macro aggregates. The model, that consists of several “pseudo” behavioral equations and identities, can be used for simulation exercises as well as forecasting purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2015. "ISBEM: An econometric model for the Italian State Budget Expenditures," Working Papers LuissLab 15120, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  • Handle: RePEc:lui:lleewp:15120

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2010. "Should quarterly government finance statistics be used for fiscal surveillance in Europe?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 794-807, October.
    2. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 271-326, January-M.
    3. Catapano, Cristina & Cesaroni, Tatiana & Fontana, Alessandro & Monacelli, Daniela, 2008. "L'individuazione di un benchmark per il fabbisogno di spesa dei comuni italiani: un'analisi per gruppi omogenei
      [The identification of a benchmark for the expenditure requirements of italian munici
      ," MPRA Paper 59865, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item


    Fiscal forecasting; budget state expenditures; intra annual cash data; econometric models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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