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Short-term monitoring of the Spanish Government balance with mixed-frequencies models

Author

Listed:
  • Teresa Leal

    () (Universidad de Huelva)

  • Diego J. Pedregal

    () (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Javier J. Pérez

    () (Banco de España)

Abstract

We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled through its total revenue and expenditure categories, and encompasses a number of indicators, depending on data availability. The mixed-frequencies approach is particularly relevant for the case of Spain, given its institutional set-up and the specific data availability for the different subsectors. All in all, we provide models detailed enough in coverage, while at the same time manageable, to be used: (i) for real-time monitoring of fiscal policies with a focus on quarterly developments of the General Government sector; (ii) for the monitoring of general government sub-sectors for which intra-annual data coverage is limited (Regional and Local governments), and (iii) to bridge (translate) into National Accounts available monthly information for the subsectors of the general government.

Suggested Citation

  • Teresa Leal & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "Short-term monitoring of the Spanish Government balance with mixed-frequencies models," Working Papers 0931, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0931
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/09/Fic/dt0931e.pdf
    File Function: First version, January 2010
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Bianchi & Tatiana Cesaroni & Ottavio Ricchi, 2013. "Previsioni delle spese del bilancio dello Stato attraverso i flussi di contabilità finanziaria," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 271-326, January-M.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal forecasting; Fiscal policies; Mixed frequency data; Kalman Filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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