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Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France

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  • MOULIN, Laurent
  • SALTO, Matteo
  • SILVESTRINI, Andrea
  • VEREDAS, David

Abstract

We develop a methodology for using intra-annual data to forecast annual budget deficits. Our approach aims at improving the accuracy of the deficit forecasts, a relevant issue to policy makers in the Eurozone and at proposing a replicable methodology using at best public quantitative information on budgetary data. Using French data on government (State) revenues and expenditures, we estimate intra-annual monthly ARIMA models for all the items of the central government revenues and expenditures. Next, applying temporal aggregation techniques, we infer parameters of the annual models from the estimated parameters of the intra-annual models. These parameters incorporate all the intra-annual information. Finally, we do one period ahead predictions. We are able to update the annual deficit forecast as soon as new monthly data are available. This allows us to detect possible slippages in central government finances.

Suggested Citation

  • MOULIN, Laurent & SALTO, Matteo & SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2004. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficits : the case of France," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004048, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2004048
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    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
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    7. SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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    9. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.
    10. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1990. "Parameter identification in ARMA processes in the presence of regular but incomplete sampling," Other publications TiSEM 708ee84d-487f-48a4-8169-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Massimiliano Marcellino, 2004. "Forecast Pooling for European Macroeconomic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 91-112, February.
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    1. SILVESTRINI, Andrea & VEREDAS, David, 2005. "Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005059, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    2. Pérez, Javier J., 2005. "Early-warning tools to forecast general government deficit in the euro area: the role of intra-annual fiscal indicators," Working Paper Series 497, European Central Bank.
    3. Perez, Javier J., 2007. "Leading indicators for euro area government deficits," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-275.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    French State deficit; temporal aggregation; intra-annual; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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