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Temporal aggregation of univariate linear time series models

  • SILVESTRINI, Andrea
  • VEREDAS, David

In this paper we feature state-of-the-art econometric methodology of temporal aggregation for univariate linear time series, namely ARIMA-GARCH models. We present a unified overview of temporal aggregation techniques for this broad class of processes and we explain in detail, although intuitively, the technical machinery behind the results. An empirical application with Belgian public deficit data illustrates the main issues.

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File URL: http://alfresco.uclouvain.be/alfresco/download/attach/workspace/SpacesStore/109b0a28-62cc-4596-908c-be8d4e095012/coredp_2005_59.pdf
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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE) in its series CORE Discussion Papers with number 2005059.

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Date of creation: 00 Sep 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cor:louvco:2005059
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  1. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1992. "Temporal Aggregation of Garch Processes," Papers 9240, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
  2. Luiz Hotta & Pedro Pereira & Rissa Ota, 2004. "Effect of outliers on forecasting temporally aggregated flow variables," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 13(2), pages 371-402, December.
  3. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1987. "Predictive accuracy gain from disaggregate sampling in ARIMA-models," Research Memorandum FEW 273, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Clive Granger & Tae-Hwy Lee, 1999. "The effect of aggregation on nonlinearity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 259-269.
  5. Granger, C. W. J., 1987. "Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(02), pages 208-222, April.
  6. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1984. "Missing observations in the dynamic regression model," Other publications TiSEM 4d689d7c-4d89-4ab6-b8c3-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  8. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
  9. HAFNER, Christian & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2003. "Estimation of temporally aggregated multivariate GARCH models," CORE Discussion Papers 2003073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Yue Fang & Sergio G. Koreisha, 2004. "Updating ARMA predictions for temporal aggregates," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 275-296.
  11. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
  12. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "On the Estimation of Nonlinearly Aggregated Mixed Models," Econometrics 0411012, EconWPA.
  13. Hafner, C.M., 2004. "Temporal aggregation of multivariate GARCH processes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2004-29, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  14. Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
  16. William W. S. Wei, 1978. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Seasonal Time Series Models," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 433-448 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  18. Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Temporal aggregation of GARCH processes," Other publications TiSEM 0642fb61-c7f4-4281-b484-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  19. Palm, F.C. & Nijman, T.E., 1990. "Parameter identification in ARMA-processes in the presence of regular but incomplete sampling," Other publications TiSEM 69e84dde-44ef-4592-93a8-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  20. Oscar Jorda & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "Time-Scale Transformations of Discrete-Time Processes," Working Papers 32, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  21. Laurent Moulin & Matteo Sala & Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Using intra annual information to forecast the annual state deficit. The case of France," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136217, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  22. Weiss, Andrew A., 1984. "Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-281, December.
  23. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Forecasting Contemporaneously Aggregated Vector ARMA Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(3), pages 201-14, July.
  24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  25. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-36, January.
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