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The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective of the New Member States

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Orbán

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • György Szapáry

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to examine the fiscal characteristics of the new members in the light of the requirements of the SGP and the criticisms levelled against the Pact and to see in what ways their initial conditions differ from those faced by the current euro zone countries in the run-up to EMU. Overall, because of the lower debt levels and greater yield convergence already achieved, the new members will be able to rely less on gains from yield convergence than the current eurozone members were able to do in the run-up to EMU. EU accession will also have a negative net impact on the budgets of the new members in the early years of membership. We also look at the cyclical sensitivities of the budgets and find that in the new members the smoothing capacity of the automatic stabilizers might be weaker than in the current euro zone members. Beyond these general characteristics, we also emphasize that there are large differences in the starting fiscal positions of the new members. Some of the policy implications of our findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective of the New Member States," MNB Working Papers 2004/4, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2004/4
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    Cited by:

    1. Lucjan T Orlowski & Anna Tsibulina, 2014. "Integration of Central and Eastern European and the Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions from the Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(3), pages 376-395, September.
    2. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
    3. Dybczak, Kamil & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "EU fiscal stance vulnerability: Are the old members the gold members?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-101.
    4. Ferré, Montserrat, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty about countries’ compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 660-674.
    5. Marianna Sávai, 2016. "Short-term Fiscal Sustainability of V4 Countries," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(3), pages 169-182.
    6. Marco Buti, 2006. "Will the new stability and growth pact succeed? An economic and political perspective," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 241, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Schnabl, Gunther & Ziegler, Christina, 2011. "Exchange rate and wage policies in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 347-360, May.
    8. Jesmin Rahman, 2010. "Absorption Boom and Fiscal Stance: What Lies Ahead in Eastern Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2010/097, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Chiara DEL BO, 2009. "Recent advances in public investment, fiscal policy and growth," Departmental Working Papers 2009-25, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    10. Kocenda, Evzen & Kutan, Ali M. & Yigit, Taner M., 2008. "Fiscal convergence in the European Union," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-330, December.
    11. Menguy, Séverine, 2008. "A dynamic rule applied to the threshold imposed on the European budgetary deficits," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1093-1105.
    12. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Eijffinger, Sylvester & Franco, Daniele & Buti, Marco, 2005. "The Stability Pact Pains: A Forward-Looking Assessment of the Reform Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 5216, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Jan Zápal & OndÅej Schneider, 2006. "What Are Their Words Worth?: The Political Plans and Economic Pains of Fiscal Consolidations in the New EU Member States," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(5), pages 6-37, October.
    15. Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Lewis, John, 2007. "Debt, deficits, and the accession of the new member States to the Euro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-337, June.
    16. Jan Zápal, 2007. "The Relation Between the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance and the Growth Accounting Method of Deriving Net Fiscal Effort," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 324-334, November.
    17. Sapir, André & Buti, Marco, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in Europe: The Past and Future of EMU Rules from the Perspective of Musgrave and Buchanan," CEPR Discussion Papers 5830, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Philipp Paulus, 2006. "The final blow to the Stability Pact? EMU enlargement and government debt," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2006, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    19. Carnazza, Giovanni & Liberati, Paolo & Sacchi, Agnese, 2020. "The cyclically-adjusted primary balance: A novel approach for the euro area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 1123-1145.
    20. Zsolt Darvas & Gyorgy Szapary, 2008. "Euro Area Enlargement and Euro Adoption Strategies," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0824, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods

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