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Policy Mix and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Fiscal Policy Rules

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  • Peter Claeys

Abstract

This paper characterises rules-based fiscal policy setting. Basically, we translate a standard monetary policy rule into a simple fiscal policy rule. We then infer on fiscal policymakers' reaction coefficients by testing the rule with GMM. Interaction is also tested directly by the inclusion of monetary policy setting. Our results qualify existing evidence on systematic fiscal policy in two respects. First, fiscal policy usually stabilises public debt. And there is indeed substantial interaction between fiscal and monetary policy via the debt channel. Second, sustainability is achieved with a “stop-go” cycle of consolidation. Consolidation does not come at the cost of less cyclical stabilisation unless debt ratios are high.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Claeys, 2005. "Policy Mix and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Fiscal Policy Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 1406, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1406
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2012. "Fiscal policy and asset price volatility," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 123-156, February.
    2. Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A. & Wolfinger, Julia, 2018. "Modeling fiscal sustainability in dynamic macro-panels with heterogeneous effects: Evidence from German federal states," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 18/05, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..
    3. Piotr Krajewski & Michal Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in Central and Eastern European Countries - A Post-Crisis Assessment," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(2), pages 175-188.
    4. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2009. "Fiscal Taylor rules in the postwar United States," Kiel Working Papers 1509, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    5. Malley, Jim & Philippopoulos, Apostolis & Woitek, Ulrich, 2009. "To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 689-714, August.
    6. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2013. "The effects of financial crisis on fiscal positions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 197-213.
    7. Jim Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Ulrich Woitek, 2007. "To React or Not? Fiscal Policy, Volatility and Welfare in the EU-3," IEW - Working Papers 312, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    8. Theofilakou, Nancy & Stournaras, Yannis, 2012. "Government solvency and financial markets: Dynamic panel estimates for the European Monetary Union," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 130-133.
    9. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    10. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Asset price volatility and government revenue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2532-2543.
    11. Flanagan, Kieron & Uyarra, Elvira & Laranja, Manuel, 2010. "The ‘policy mix’ for innovation: rethinking innovation policy in a multi-level, multi-actor context," MPRA Paper 23567, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Flanagan, Kieron & Uyarra, Elvira & Laranja, Manuel, 2011. "Reconceptualising the 'policy mix' for innovation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 702-713, June.
    13. R. Golinelli & I. Mammi & A. Musolesi, 2018. "Parameter heterogeneity, persistence and cross-sectional dependence: new insights on fiscal policy reaction functions for the Euro area," Working Papers wp1120, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    14. Marian Dobranschi, 2010. "The sustainability of public debt in Romania in economic and financial crisis," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    15. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.
    16. Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2011. "Fiscal policy and financial market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 231-251, January.
    17. Afonso, António & Toffano, Priscilla, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Paper Series 1529, European Central Bank.
    18. Schalck, Christophe, 2012. "Investigating heterogeneity in European fiscal behaviours," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(4), pages 383-390.
    19. Philippe Burger & Chandapiwa Jimmy, 2006. "Should South Africa Have A Fiscal Rule?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 642-669, December.
    20. Philippe Burger & Krige Siebrits & Estian Calitz, 2015. "The public sector balance sheet and fiscal consolidation in South Africa," Working Papers 11/2015, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; fiscal policy; policy interaction and policy rules; debt sustainability;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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