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The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Forni
  • Libero Monteforte

    (Luca Sessa - Banca d'Italia, Research Department)

Abstract

We reconsider the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the context of a new-keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We assume that a fraction of the agents are non Ricardian and estimate the model parameters using Bayesian techniques. Our results show that the estimates of important parameters of the model differ depending on how detailed the fiscal policy is modelled. In particular, when we properly model distortionary taxes and take into account the fact that government expenditure is a composite aggregate (including consumption of goods and compensations for government employees), the estimated share of non Ricardian agents is significant and the model is able to replicate the widespread evidence that private consumption responds positively to government expenditure shocks. Previous papers, which mainly considered lump-sum taxes and treated government consumption as one single aggregate, obtained a smaller estimated share of non Ricardian households and no significant effect of government spending shocks on macroeconomic variables

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Forni & Libero Monteforte, 2006. "The estimated general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: the case of the euro area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 142, Society for Computational Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecfa:142
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baoline Chen & Peter A. Zadrozny, 2003. "Higher-Moments in Perturbation Solution of the Linear-Quadratic Exponential Gaussian Optimal Control Problem," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 21(1_2), pages 45-64, February.
    2. Zadrozny, Peter A., 1998. "An eigenvalue method of undetermined coefficients for solving linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1353-1373, August.
    3. Peter A. Zadrozny & Baoline Chen, 1999. "Perturbation Solution of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 334, Society for Computational Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ratto Marco & Roeger Werner & Veld Jan, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in an estimated open-economy model for the EURO area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 43, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    4. Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2008. "QUEST III: an estimated DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 335, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    5. Marto, Ricardo, 2013. "Assessing the Impacts of Non-Ricardian Households in an Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 55647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; rule-of-thumb consumers; distortionary taxation; bayesian estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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