IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bde/wpaper/0604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco de Castro

    () (Banco de España)

  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

    () (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Spain in a VAR framework. Government expenditure expansionary shocks are found to have a positive impact on output in the short term at the cost of higher inflation and public deficits and lower output in the medium and long term. Tax increases are found to have a negative impact on economic activity in the medium term while having only a temporary effect on the improvement of the public deficit. The application of these results to the analysis of fiscal policy in Spain since the mid nineties point to the conclusion that the consolidation process does not seem to have involved costs in terms of output growth and the stance of fiscal policy has become more counter cyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco de Castro & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Papers 0604, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/06/Fic/dt0604e.pdf
    File Function: First version, February 2006
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572, October.
    2. Fabiani, S. & Druant, M. & Hernando, I. & Kwapil, C. & Landau, B. & Loupias, C. & Martins, F. & Mathä, T. & Sabbatini, R. & Stahl, H. & Stockman, A., 2005. "The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence," Working papers 135, Banque de France.
    3. Ángel Estrada & José Luis Fernández & Esther Moral & Ana V. Regil, 2004. "A quarterly macroeconometric model of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0413, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    4. Morgan, Julian & Locarno, Alberto & Vallés, Javier & Berben, Robert-Paul, 2004. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 400, European Central Bank.
    5. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    6. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S. & Gonzalez-Minguez, Jose M., 2005. "Exchange-rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," IESE Research Papers D/609, IESE Business School.
    7. de Castro, Francisco & Hernández de Cos, Pablo, 2008. "The economic effects of fiscal policy: The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1005-1028, September.
    8. Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Montero, Jose Manuel, 2007. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 284-298, December.
    9. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
    10. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    11. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
    12. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    13. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "How do European monetary and fiscal authorities behave?," Working Papers 214, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    16. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    17. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    18. Hernando, Ignacio & Álvarez, Luis J., 2005. "The price setting behaviour of Spanish firms: evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 538, European Central Bank.
    19. Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June.
    20. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Roberto Perotti & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 571-589, June.
    21. J. Ignacio Garcia-Perez & Juan F. Jimeno, 2007. "Public Sector Wage Gaps In Spanish Regions," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(4), pages 501-531, July.
    22. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.
    23. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1999. "Assessing the effects of fiscal shocks," Working Paper Series WP-99-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Jerome Henry & Pablo Hernandez de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices; evidence from macroeconometric models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 523, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    25. Alfredo Martín-Oliver & Vicente Salas-Fumás & Jesus Saurina, 2007. "A Test of the Law of One Price in Retail Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2021-2040, December.
    26. Juan J. Dolado & Marcel Jansen & Juan F. Jimeno, 2005. "Dual employment protection legislation: a framework for analysis," Working Papers 0510, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    27. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    28. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Daniel Navia, 2005. "Say you fix, enjoy and relax: the deleterious effect of peg announcements on fiscal discipline," Working Papers 0523, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    29. Francisco de Castro & José Manuel González-Páramo & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2004. "Fiscal consolidation in Spain: dynamic interdependence of public spending and revenues," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 28(1), pages 193-207, January.
    30. Stefano Neri, 2001. "Assessing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 425, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    31. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    32. Luis J. Álvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2010. "Price-setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 105-121.
    33. Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
    34. Roberto Perotti, 2005. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    35. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2002. "Should the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve be concerned about fiscal policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 333-389.
    36. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    37. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović & Tomislav Ćorić, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy: Evidence of Croatia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1302, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    3. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
      [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App
      ," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    5. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, 2009. "The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 09/8, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009
      [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.
    7. Hrvoje Simovic & Milan Deskar-Skrbic, 2013. "Dynamic effects of fiscal policy and fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 55-78.
    8. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    9. Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Pérez, Javier J. & Giordano, Raffaela & Depalo, Domenico & Coutinho Pereira, Manuel & Eugène, Bruno & Papapetrou, Evangelia & Reiss, Lukas & Roter, Mojca, 2011. "The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1406, European Central Bank.
    11. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    12. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
    13. Mihai Ioan Mutascu & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2011. "Taxes And Economic Growth In Romania. A Var Approach," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(13), pages 1-10.
    14. António Afonso & Ricardo Sousa, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Portugal: a Bayesian SVAR analysis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 10(1), pages 61-82, April.
    15. Khalid Khan & Chen FEI & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Badar Nadeem Ashraf, 2015. "Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption Using ARDL Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 239-248, February.
    16. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2007. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 63-93 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Florian Marcel NU?A & Alina Cristina NU?A & Doini?a ARITON & Carmen Gabriela SÎRBU, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal-Budgetary Measures Upon Gdp, Private Consumption And Investments – A Var Analysis," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(23), pages 84-92, december.
    18. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
    19. Giordano, Raffaela & Momigliano, Sandro & Neri, Stefano & Perotti, Roberto, 2007. "The effects of fiscal policy in Italy: Evidence from a VAR model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 707-733, September.
    20. Rafael Ravnik & Ivan Zilic, 2011. "The use of SVAR analysis in determining the effects of ?scal shocks in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 25-58.
    21. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    22. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2009. "Fiscal policy with credit constrained households," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 357, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    23. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2011. "Can we Rely upon Fiscal Policy Estimates in Countries with Unreported Production of 15 Per Cent (or more) of GDP?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3521, CESifo Group Munich.
    24. Mthokozisi Mlilo & Umakrishnan Kollamparambi, 2016. "Fiscal policy, employment, and output in South Africa: An open economy analysis," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 11-23, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    var; fiscal shocks; fiscal multipliers;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España). General contact details of provider: http://www.bde.es/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.