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Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit

Author

Listed:
  • Fatih Karahan
  • Benjamin Pugsley
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the US start-up rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely predetermined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly half of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the life cycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the 1960s–1970s period of accelerating labor force growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "Demographic Origins of the Start-up Deficit," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(7), pages 1986-2023, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:114:y:2024:i:7:p:1986-2023
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20210362
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D25 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice: Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - Production Management

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