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Population Aging and Structural Transformation

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  • Javier Cravino
  • Andrei A. Levchenko
  • Marco Rojas

Abstract

We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transformation process. Household-level data from the U.S. show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantitative model to show that U.S. population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is about the same size as the contribution of real income growth, and about half as large as that of changes in relative prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko & Marco Rojas, 2019. "Population Aging and Structural Transformation," NBER Working Papers 26327, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaggl, Paul & Gray, Rowena & Marinescu, Ioana & Morin, Miguel, 2021. "Does electricity drive structural transformation? Evidence from the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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