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Determinants of Structural Change

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  • Tomasz Swiecki

    (University of British Columbia)

Abstract

In this paper I ask which of the multiple mechanisms suggested in the literature are quantitatively important for understanding the process of structural change. I build a model combining four forces in a common framework: (i) sector-biased technological progress, (ii) nonhomothetic tastes, (iii) international trade and (iv) changing wedges between factor costs across sectors. I calibrate the model using the data for 45 diverse countries over the period 1970-2005 and use counterfactual simulations of the model to systematically assess the relative importance of the four determinants of structural change. I find that sector-biased technological change is overall the most important mechanism and it is essential for understanding the decline of manufacturing labor share and the corresponding growth in services in developed countries. Nonhomothetic preferences are key to accounting for movement of labor out of agriculture, which matters primarily for poorer countries. International trade and changes in relative factor costs across sectors are important for individual countries but their impact on the relocation of labor is less systematic. I also show that a model with homothetic preferences would overstate the importance of agriculture in accounting for differences in aggregate productivity across countries and over time. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Tomasz Swiecki, 2017. "Determinants of Structural Change," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 95-131, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:14-247
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2017.01.007
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    2. Sposi, Michael, 2019. "Evolving comparative advantage, sectoral linkages, and structural change," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 75-87.
    3. Francisco J Buera & Joseph P Kaboski & Richard Rogerson & Juan I Vizcaino, 2022. "Skill-Biased Structural Change [“Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings”]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 592-625.
    4. Shuddhasattwa Rafiq & Ruhul Salim & Pasquale M Sgro, 2018. "Energy, unemployment and trade," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(47), pages 5122-5134, October.
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    6. Edgar Cruz & Xavier Raurich, 2020. "Leisure time and the sectoral composition of employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 198-219, October.
    7. Alvarez-Cuadrado, Francisco & Long, Ngo Van & Poschke, Markus, 2018. "Capital-labor substitution, structural change and the labor income share," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-231.
    8. Kevin Genna & Christian Ghiglino & Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti, 2021. "Knowledge-Based Structural Change," AMSE Working Papers 2119, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    9. Gunes Asik & Ulas Karakoc & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Michelle Marshalian, 2019. "Productivity, structural change and skills dynamics: Evidence from a half century analysis in Tunisia and Turkey," Working Papers 20190001, UMR Développement et Sociétés, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.
    10. Diego Comin & Danial Lashkari & Martí Mestieri, 2021. "Structural Change With Long‐Run Income and Price Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 311-374, January.
    11. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2018. "Exploring Long Run Structural Change with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 2018: 12, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    12. Cravino, Javier & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Rojas, Marco, 2019. "Population aging and structural transformation," CEPR Discussion Papers 14026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Stefan Mann, 2021. "Synthesizing Knowledge about Structural Change in Agriculture: The Integration of Disciplines and Aggregation Levels," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-14, June.
    14. Richard Rogerson & Joseph Kaboski & Francisco Buera, 2015. "Skill-Biased Structural Change and the Skill Premium," 2015 Meeting Papers 895, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Révész, Tamás & Boda, György & Losonci, Dávid & Fülöp, Zoltán, 2019. "A növekedési ütem és a foglalkoztatás növelésének lehetőségeiről [The chances of enhancing growth rate and employment]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 376-417.
    16. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson, 2019. "G-RDEM: A GTAP-Based Recursive Dynamic CGE Model for Long-Term Baseline Generation and Analysis," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 4(1), pages 50-96, June.
    17. Gunes Arkadas Asik & Mohamed Ali Marouani & Michelle Marshalian & Ulas Karakoc, 2018. "Productivity, Structural Change and Skills Dynamics in Tunisia and Turkey," Working Papers 1269, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Dec 2018.
    18. Wolfgang Britz & Yaghoob Jafari & Alexandr Nekhay & Roberto Roson, 2020. "Modeling Trade and Income Distribution in Six Developing Countries A dynamic general equilibrium analysis up to the year 2050," Working Papers 2020:03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    19. Takahashi, Harutaka & Le Riche, Antoine, 2021. "A dynamic theory of the declining aggregated labor income share: Intangible capital vs. tangible capital," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 104-118.
    20. van Neuss, Leif, 2018. "Globalization and deindustrialization in advanced countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 49-63.
    21. Wolfgang Britz & Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2019. "SSP Long Run Scenarios for European NUTS2 Regions," Working Papers 2019: 22, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    22. Jean Chateau & Erwin Corong & Elisa Lanzi & Caitlyn Carrico & Jean Fouré & David Laborde, 2020. "Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 109-161, June.
    23. Mariarosaria Comunale & Giulia Felice, 2019. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between trade and structural change," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 62, Bank of Lithuania.
    24. Roberto Roson, 2017. "Understanding the Global Dynamics of Sectoral Labor Productivity," Working Papers 2017:15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    25. Vanessa ALVIAREZ & CHEN Cheng & Nitya PANDALAI-NAYAR & Liliana VARELA & YI Kei-Mu & ZHANG Hongyong, 2021. "Multinationals and Structural Transformation," Discussion papers 21100, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural change; Structural transformation; Nonhomothetic preferences; Sectoral productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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