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The performance of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust tests: a Monte Carlo study with an application to the three-factor Fama-French asset-pricing model

  • Surajit Ray

    (Bear Stearns Asset Management, New York, USA)

  • N. E. Savin

    (Department of Economics, Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA)

Registered author(s):

    This paper illustrates the pitfalls of the conventional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) Wald test and the advantages of new HAR tests developed by Kiefer and Vogelsang in 2005 and by Phillips, Sun and Jin in 2003 and 2006. The illustrations use the 1993 Fama-French three-factor model. The null that the intercepts are zero is tested for 5-year, 10-year and longer sub-periods. The conventional HAR test with asymptotic P-values rejects the null for most 5-year and 10-year sub-periods. By contrast, the null is not rejected by the new HAR tests. This conflict is explained by showing that inferences based on the conventional HAR test are misleading for the sample sizes used in this application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.972
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    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/2008-v23.1/
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    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 23 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 91-109

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    Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:23:y:2008:i:1:p:91-109
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.972
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/

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    1. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sun, Yixiao & Jin, Sainan, 2004. "Spectral Density Estimation and Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6mf9q2rt, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
    3. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2011. "Block Bootstrap Hac Robust Tests: The Sophistication Of The Naive Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(04), pages 745-791, August.
    5. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(06), pages 1130-1164, December.
    6. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Kenneth Stewart, 1997. "Exact testing in multivariate regression," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 321-352.
    9. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-66, July.
    10. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 36-58.
    11. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Hac Estimation By Automated Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 116-142, February.
    12. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sun, Yixiao & Jin, Sainan, 2004. "Consistent HAC Estimation and Robust Regression Testing Using Sharp Origin Kernels with No Truncation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6d36x00z, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    13. Michael Jansson, 2004. "The Error in Rejection Probability of Simple Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(3), pages 937-946, 05.
    14. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2002. "Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Testing Using Bandwidth Equal To Sample Size," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(06), pages 1350-1366, December.
    15. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    16. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    17. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September.
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