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Global Development Horizons : Capital for the Future - Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World

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  • World Bank

Abstract

The gradual acceleration of growth in developing countries is a defining feature of the past two decades. This acceleration came with major shifts in patterns of investment, saving, and capital flows. This second volume in the Global Development Horizons series analyzes these shifts and explores how they may evolve through 2030. Average domestic saving in developing countries stood at 34 percent of their GDP in 2010, up from 24 percent in 1990, while their investment was around 33 percent of their GDP in 2012, up from 26 percent. These trends in saving and investment, along with higher growth rates in developing countries, have resulted in developing countries’ share of global savings now standing at 46 percent, nearly double the level of the 1990s. The presence of developing countries on the global stage will continue to expand over the next two decades. Analysis presented in this report projects that by 2030, China will account for 30 percent of global investment activity, far and away the largest share of any single country, while India and Brazil (at 7 percent and 3 percent, respectively) will account for shares comparable to the United States and Japan (11 percent and 5 percent, respectively). The complex interaction among aging, growth, and financial deepening can be expected to result in a world where developing countries will contribute 62 of every 100 dollars of world saving in 2030, up from 45 dollars in 2010, and where they account for between $6.2 trillion and $13 trillion (47 percent to 60 percent) of global gross capital flows, rising from $1.3 trillion (23 percent) in 2010. Trends in investment, saving, and capital flows through 2030 will affect economic conditions from the household level to the global macroeconomic level, with implications not only for national policy makers but also for international institutions and policy coordination. Policy makers preparing for this change will benefit from a better understanding of the unfolding dynamics of global capital and wealth in the future. This book is accompanied by a website, http://www.worldbank.org/CapitalForTheFuture, that includes a host of related electronic resources: data sets underlying the two main scenarios presented in the report, background papers, technical appendixes, interactive widgets that allow the interested reader to explore variations to some of the assumptions used in the projections, and related audio and video resources.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank, 2013. "Global Development Horizons : Capital for the Future - Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13431.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:13431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Didier, Tatiana & Llovet, Ruth & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2017. "International financial integration of East Asia and Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 52-66.
    2. Tyers, Rod, 2015. "International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-19.
    3. Rod Tyers, 2015. "Financial Integration and China's Global Impact," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 15-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Agénor, Pierre-Richard, 2016. "Optimal fiscal management of commodity price shocks," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 183-196.
    5. Rod Tyers, 2016. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(11), pages 1674-1702, November.
    6. Elisa Van Waeyenberge & Hannah Bargawi, 2016. "Financing Economic Development. Theoretical Debates and Empirical Trends," Working papers wpaper139, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    7. Joseph McKinney, 2014. "The Changing Global Economy: Roles Of The United States And The European Union In The Evolving Context," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 57-68.
    8. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2016. "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment," NBER Working Papers 22751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. William Scheela & Edmundo Isidro & Thawatchai Jittrapanun & Nguyen Trang, 2015. "Formal and informal venture capital investing in emerging economies in Southeast Asia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 597-617, September.
    10. Adams-Kane, Jonathon & Lopez, Claude & Wilhelmus, Jakob, 2016. "2016 Global Opportunity Index," MPRA Paper 73720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. World Bank, 2014. "Poland : Saving for Growth and Prosperous Aging," World Bank Other Operational Studies 20441, The World Bank.
    12. Vipin Arora & Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Reconstructing the Savings Glut: The Global Implications of Asian Excess Saving," CAMA Working Papers 2014-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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