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Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi

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  • Ali Culha

Abstract

[TR] Vergi gelirleri otomatik dengeleyiciler araciligiyla iktisadi dongulerden buyuk olcude etkilenmekte, bu da butce performansi uzerinde belirleyici bir oneme sahip olmaktadir. Bu notta, Turkiye’de iktisadi dongulerin vergi gelirleri uzerindeki etkisinin yonu ve buyuklugu, bir baska ifadeyle vergi gelirlerinin reel Gayri Safi Yurt Ici Hasila (GSYIH)’ye gore dongusel ozellikleri, cesitli istatistiki ve ekonometrik teknikler kullanilarak olculmeye calisilmaktadir. Calismadan elde edilen bulgular, Turkiye’de vergi gelirleri kalemlerinin es-dongusel oldugunu ve iktisadi dongulerden onemli olcude etkilendigini gostermektedir. Buna ilaveten, vergi gelirlerinin oynakliginin reel GSYIH’ye gore daha yuksek oldugu ve vergi geliri kalemleri ile reel GSYIH arasinda genel olarak esanli bir iliskinin oldugu gozlenmektedir. [EN] Business cycles may have significant effects on tax revenues through automatic stabilizers, which in turn lead to important repercussions on the budget performance. This note attempts to assess the direction and the magnitude of the effects of the business cycles on tax revenues in Turkey. In other words, cyclical properties of tax revenues with respect to real GDP have been analyzed by utilizing a number of statistical and econometric techniques. The findings of the study show that tax revenues in Turkey are procyclical and they are affected from business cycles to a great extent. In addition, it is observed that the volatility of tax revenues as regards the real GDP appears to be higher and there exists in general a contemporaneous correlation between tax revenues and the real GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Culha, 2012. "Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1234, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:econot:1234
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sergio Ginebri & Bernardo Maggi & Manuel Turco, 2005. "The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 67-81.
    2. William Seyfried & Louis Pantuosco, 2003. "Estimating the sensitivity of state tax revenue to cyclical and wealth effects," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 114-124, March.
    3. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
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