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The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis

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  • Sergio Ginebri
  • Bernardo Maggi
  • Manuel Turco

Abstract

The paper offers a new estimate of the sensitivity of Italy's primary budget balance to macroeconomic variables. The analysis has distinguishing features: detailed itemization of public finance aggregates; close attention to the statistical properties of the time series; and joint estimation of elasticities with respect to both real GDP and inflation. First, the economic variables driving the automatic component were chosen. Second, when possible, a macroeconomic base was associated with each public finance item. Third, each tax base was regressed on the driving economic variables. Fourth, each budget item that was supposed to include an automatic component was regressed either on its own base or directly on the economic variables affecting the automatic components. The effects on public budget are simulated to investigate the consequences of a change in nominal and real GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Ginebri & Bernardo Maggi & Manuel Turco, 2005. "The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 67-81.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:1:p:67-81
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000291326
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joanna Paisley & Chris Salmon, 1995. "How Cyclical is the PSBR?," Bank of England working papers 34, Bank of England.
    2. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jean-Claude Chouraqui & Robert P. Hagemann & Nicola Sartor, 1990. "Indicators of Fiscal Policy: A Re-Examination," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 78, OECD Publishing.
    4. Braconier, Henrik & Holden, Steinar, 1999. "The Public Budget Balance - Fiscal Indicators and Cyclical Sensitivity in the Nordic Countries," Working Papers 67, National Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Libman & Lars P. Feld, 2013. "Strategic Tax Collection and Fiscal Decentralization: The Case of Russia," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(4), pages 449-482, November.
    2. repec:wsi:ijtafx:v:07:y:2004:i:07:n:s0219024904002700 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ali Culha, 2012. "Turkiye’de Vergi Gelirlerinin Iktisadi Dongulere Duyarliligi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1234, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

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