How Cyclical is the PSBR?
This paper examines the methodology of cyclical adjustment of fiscal balances. The crucial assumption underlying any estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance (CAB) is found to be the measure of the output gap. Estimates for the UK are presented, suggesting that when the economy returns to trend the PSBR should fall by between 3% to 4.5% of GDP from its position at the end of 1992.
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- Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Quah and Vahey core inflation estimation," Statistical Software Components RTZ00139, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
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