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How Cyclical is the PSBR?

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  • Joanna Paisley
  • Chris Salmon

Abstract

This paper examines the methodology of cyclical adjustment of fiscal balances. The crucial assumption underlying any estimates of the cyclically-adjusted balance (CAB) is found to be the measure of the output gap. Estimates for the UK are presented, suggesting that when the economy returns to trend the PSBR should fall by between 3% to 4.5% of GDP from its position at the end of 1992.

Suggested Citation

  • Joanna Paisley & Chris Salmon, 1995. "How Cyclical is the PSBR?," Bank of England working papers 34, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:34
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/1995/wp34.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-1144, September.
    2. Roger Beaton & Paul Fisher, 1995. "The Construction of RPIY," Bank of England working papers 28, Bank of England.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Ginebri & Bernardo Maggi & Manuel Turco, 2005. "The automatic reaction of the Italian government budget to fundamentals: an econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 67-81.
    2. Mark S Astley & Andrew G Haldane, 1995. "Money as an Indicator," Bank of England working papers 35, Bank of England.
    3. Marco Bianchi & Gylfi Zoega, 1998. "Unemployment persistence: does the size of the shock matter?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 283-304.
    4. Andrew G Haldane, 1995. "Rules, Discretion and the United Kingdom's New Monetary Framework," Bank of England working papers 40, Bank of England.
    5. Andy Haldane & Bennett McCallum & Chris Salmon, 1996. "Base Money Rules in the UK," Bank of England working papers 45, Bank of England.
    6. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
    7. Marco Bianchi, 1996. "A Comparison of Methods for Seasonal Adjustment of the Monetary Aggregates," Bank of England working papers 44, Bank of England.
    8. Marco Bianchi, 1995. "Testing for convergence: evidence from non-parametric multimodality tests," Bank of England working papers 36, Bank of England.
    9. Francis Breedon & Ian Twinn, 1995. "Valuation of underwriting agreements for UK rights issues: evidence from the traded option market," Bank of England working papers 39, Bank of England.

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