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Should We Pay Attention to Indicators of Fiscal Impact on Demand?

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Abstract

This paper looks at five different ways in which the effect of fiscal policy on aggregate demand in the short term can be empirically estimated, and asks two questions: First, given the assumption that fiscal policy has the same effect across countries, which of the five indicators is the empirically best measure of fiscal impact on demand? Second, is it reasonable to interpret fiscal policy indicators similarly across countries, or does the effect of fiscal policy on demand differ to a degree that makes this unreasonable? Running a panel regression of changes in aggregate demand on the five measures of fiscal policy in turn frpr OECD countries, the conclusion is that OECD's structural budget balance measure seems to be the more plausible measure of fiscal impact on demand. Moreover, testing the restriction that the five measures have identical parameters across OECD countries is rejected in five all cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Signe Krogstrup, 2002. "Should We Pay Attention to Indicators of Fiscal Impact on Demand?," IHEID Working Papers 01-2002, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp01-2002
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    Cited by:

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    2. P. Kiss, Gábor & Vadas, Gábor, 2005. "Légy résen! Az államháztartási egyenleg ciklikus igazítása [Be on your guard! Cyclically adjusted budget deficit]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 109-129.
    3. Mr. Michael Kumhof & Mr. Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Simple, Implementable Fiscal Policy Rules," IMF Working Papers 2009/076, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Xin Sheng & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "The State-Level Nonlinear Effects of Government Spending Shocks in the US: The Role of Partisan Conflict," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-9, September.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Fiscal indicators; Demand; Fiscal impulse; Structural budget balance; Fiscal Impact;
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