Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand
This paper defines fiscal impulse as a measure of whether government fiscal policy decisions are adding to, or subtracting from, aggregate demand pressures in the economy. When assessing the effects of fiscal policy on the economy it can be useful to have an approximate estimate of fiscal impulse. Estimates of fiscal impulse range from simple indicators based on fiscal aggregates, to more complicated approaches requiring greater use of judgement and economic theory. This paper develops reasonably simple indicators based on adjusted fiscal aggregates. It also sets out some sensitivity analysis. The indicators reflect intuitive assessments about changes in New Zealand fiscal policy over the last decade and looking forward into the forecast period. Although estimates are relatively insensitive to alternative assumptions, this is likely to be the result of the relative stability of the time period under consideration. Simple indicators of fiscal impulse have limitations. At best they can only provide an indication of the first round impact of changes in discretionary fiscal policy. A more complete assessment of the effects of fiscal policy on the economy requires a full-scale macroeconomic model, perhaps complemented with time series analysis.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2002|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New Zealand Treasury, PO Box 3724, Wellington, New Zealand|
Phone: +64-4-472 2733
Fax: +64-4-473 0982
Web page: http://www.treasury.govt.nz
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kearney, Ide & McCoy, Daniel & Duffy, David & McMahon, Michael & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2000. "Assessing the Stance of Irish Fiscal Policy," Papers BP2001/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Martin Scheider, 2002. "Local fiscal equalisation based on fiscal capacity: the case of Austria," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 105-133, March.
- Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
- Nigel A Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That; Which Indicators to Use in Assessing Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund.
- Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel R. Feenberg, 2000.
"The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 37-56, Summer.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Daniel Feenberg, 2000. "The Significance of Federal Taxes as Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 7662, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Julie Tam & Heather Kirkham, 2000. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: Implications for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/10, New Zealand Treasury, revised 2001.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996.
"Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
5730, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries; Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Working Papers 96/70, International Monetary Fund.
- John Janssen, 2001. "New Zealand's Fiscal Policy Framework: Experience and Evolution," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/25, New Zealand Treasury.
- repec:esr:chaptr:jacb200010 is not listed on IDEAS
- Professor Lars E O Svensson, 2001. "Independent review of the operation of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, March.
- Hall, Viv B. & Rae, David, 1998. "Fiscal expansion, monetary policy, interest rate risk premia, and wage reactions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 621-640, October.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kam Leong Szeto, 2002. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/07, New Zealand Treasury.
- Barrett, Alan & Barry, Frank & Van der Horst, Albert & Kearney, Ide & Lane, Philip R. & Nolan, Brian & O'Brien, Martin & Walsh, John R., 2007. "Budget Perspectives 2008," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BMI199 edited by Callan, Tim.
- Kam Leong Szeto, 2001. "An Econometric Analysis of a Production Function for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/31, New Zealand Treasury.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming, 2002. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Activity During Recessions in Advanced Economies," IMF Working Papers 02/87, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
- Ashok Bhundia & Gus O'Donnell, 2002. "UK policy coordination: the importance of institutional design," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 135-164, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Web and Publishing Team, The Treasury)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.