IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nzt/nztwps/02-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper documents the structure and key properties of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy. It is a three-good, small open economy model, which features a well-developed production block. This production block has been estimated as a system using Full Information Maximum Likelihood. Another key feature of the model is that it has a two–tiered structure: the steady-state version of the model and the dynamic version of the model. Using the steady-state version of the model, a macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand’s equilibrium exchange rate can be derived. Furthermore, the steady–state model provides estimates of potential output, which is used to measure the level of excess demand in the economy. The dynamic model is used to trace the dynamic response of a range of macroeconomic variables to various shocks such as changes to world prices for exports and changes to government policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Kam Leong Szeto, 2002. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp02-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1987. "Tariffs, Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate in an Intertemporal Optimizing Model of the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 2175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    4. Alan King, 1998. "Uncovered interest parity: New Zealand' s post-deregulation experience," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 495-503.
    5. Graeme Wells & Lewis Evans, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(1), pages 421-435, March.
    6. Edwards, Sebastian, 1989. "Temporary Terms-of-Trade Disturbances, the Real Exchange Rate and the Current Account," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 56(223), pages 343-357, August.
    7. Kam Leong Szeto, 2001. "An Econometric Analysis of a Production Function for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/31, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. Wells, Graeme & Evans, Lewis, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(172), pages 421-435, March.
    9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oktaviani, Rina & Amaliah, Syarifah & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B., 2011. "The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 153-171, February.
    3. Renee Philip & John Janssen, 2002. "Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/30, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Kunhong Kim & Iris Claus, 2004. "Agency costs and asymmetric information in a small open economy: a dynamic general equilibrium model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 787, Econometric Society.
    5. Iris Claus & Arthur Grimes, 2003. "Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Torsten Schmidt & Helmut Hofer & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0177, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948.
    8. Hodges, Cedric & Wiskich, Tony, 2016. "Are we there yet? Adjustment paths in response to Tariff shocks: a CGE Analysis," Conference papers 330171, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
    10. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0177 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Maria Elena Bontempi, 2013. "The Istat MeMo-It Macroeconometric Model: comments and suggestions for possible extensions," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 47-56.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 34-49, March.
    2. Gustavo Bussinger, 2004. "El canal de crédito como mecanismo de transmisión de la política monetaria en Brasil," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 243-262, julio-sep.
    3. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2007. "Regional business cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(2), pages 167-191, June.
    4. Lukáš Kučera, 2018. "Investice v transmisním mechanismu cílování inflace verifikace zdrojů variability investic v České republice [Investment in the Transmission Mechanism of Inflation Targeting - Verification of Sourc," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 201-217.
    5. Charles R. Bean & Matthias Paustian & Adrian Penalver & Tim Taylor, 2010. "Monetary policy after the fall," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267-328.
    6. Grimes, Arthur, 2006. "A smooth ride: Terms of trade, volatility and GDP growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 583-600, October.
    7. Elie Appelbaum & Alan D. Woodland, 2010. "The Effects of Foreign Price Uncertainty on Australian Production and Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(273), pages 162-177, June.
    8. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    9. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    10. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Heather Kirkham & Nathan McLellan & Jared Sharma, 2002. "A structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/26, New Zealand Treasury.
    11. Michael Ryan & Kam Leong Szeto, 2009. "An Introduction to the New Zealand Treasury Model," Treasury Working Paper Series 09/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    12. Buckle, Robert A. & Kim, Kunhong & Kirkham, Heather & McLellan, Nathan & Sharma, Jarad, 2007. "A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 990-1017, November.
    13. Yanovski, Boyan, 2016. "A pro-cyclical stock market under a countercyclical monetary policy in a model of endogenous business cycles," FinMaP-Working Papers 60, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    14. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2006. "The New Zealand Business Cycle: Return To Golden Days?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-21, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. van Holle, Frederiek, 2017. "Essays in empirical finance and monetary policy," Other publications TiSEM 30d11a4b-7bc9-4c81-ad24-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Boileau, Martin & Normandin, Michel, 2008. "Dynamics of the current account and interest differentials," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 35-52, January.
    17. Mauricio Mayorga Martínez & Evelyn Muñoz Salas, 2004. "¿Existe disciplina de mercado en el sistema bancario costarricense?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 263-289, julio-sep.
    18. José R. Sánchez Fung, 2004. "Reglas monetarias, metas de inflación y sus aplicaciones potenciales de la República Dominicana," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 291-323, julio-sep.
    19. Hilcías Estuardo Samayoa & Héctor Augusto Valle Samayoa, 2004. "Un modelo básico de política monetaria para Guatemala," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(3), pages 223-242, julio-sep.
    20. Satish Chand, 2001. "How misaligned is the Australian real exchange rate?," International and Development Economics Working Papers idec01-2, International and Development Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium model; Equilibrium exchange rate; potential output; Macroeconomic dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CSS Web and Publishing, The Treasury (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tregvnz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.