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The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:

  • Oktaviani, Rina
  • Amaliah, Syarifah
  • Ringler, Claudia
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Sulser, Timothy B.

Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8�C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.

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Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1148.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1148
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  1. Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China," MPRA Paper 21127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Nilsson, Charlotta & Huhtala, Anni, 2000. "Is CO2 Trading Always Beneficial? A CGE-Model Analysis on Secondary Environmental Benefits," Working Paper 75, National Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "The Distributional Impact of Environmental Policy: The Case of Carbon Tax and Energy Pricing Reform in Indonesia," EEPSEA Research Report rr2008101, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Oct 2008.
  4. Pantjar Simatupang & C. Peter Timmer, 2008. "Indonesian Rice Production: Policies And Realities," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 65-80.
  5. Lizardo, Mario & Navarro, Jorge & Suazo, Elisa, 1999. "Honduras: application of a CGE model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 149-168.
  6. Djoni Hartono & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2006. "The Economy-wide Impact of Fuel Oil, Gas and Electricity Pricing and Subsidy Policies as well as Their Consumption Improvement Efficiency in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200611, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
  7. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk, 2010. "Droughts and floods in Malawi," IFPRI discussion papers 962, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  8. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Palazzo, Amanda & Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Robertson, Richard & Tokgoz, Simla & Zhu, Tingju & Sulser, Timothy B. & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  9. Philip D. Adams & Karen M. Huff & Robert McDougall & K.R. Pearson & Alan A. Powell, 1996. "Medium- and Long-run Consequences for Australia of an APEC Free Trade Area: CGE Analyses using the GTAP and MONASH Models," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-111, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
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