Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model
The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Siddig, Khalid H.A. & Babiker, Babiker Idris, 2011.
"Agricultural Efficiency Gains and Trade Liberalization in Sudan,"
Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series
112786, University of Khartoum, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Siddig, Khalid H. A. & Babiker, Babiker Idris, 2012. "Agricultural efficiency gains and trade liberalization in Sudan," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(1), October.
- Heather E. Thompson & Lea Berrang-Ford & James D. Ford, 2010. "Climate Change and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(8), pages 2719-2733, August.
- Hassan, R. M. & Hallam, Arne, 1996.
"Macro-Economic Linkages to Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model for Sudan,"
Staff General Research Papers
5157, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Rashid M. Hassan & Arne Hallam, 1996. "Macro-Economic Linkages To Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model For Sudan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1-4), pages 66-88.
- Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Paper Series wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin MCKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2010. "The Environment and Climate Change: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18.
- Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE, 2010. "Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 63-83.
- Collier, Paul & Joshi, Vijay, 1989. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 94-113, Autumn.
- Siddig, Khalid H.A., 2011.
"The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment,"
Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series
112971, University of Khartoum, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Khalid Hassan, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254.
- Khalid H.A. Siddig, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254, 09.
- Khalid Siddig, 2011. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," EcoMod2011 2737, EcoMod.
- Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009.
"A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China,"
Asian Development Review,
Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
- Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China," MPRA Paper 21127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Sassi, Maria, 2012.
"Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach,"
124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
- Maria Sassi, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
- Raymond Torres, 2008. "The social impact of policies to address climate change: A review of the issues," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 147(2-3), pages 275-279, 06.
- Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
- S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2008.
"The Economic Impact of Climate Change,"
WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Wani, S. P. & Sreedevi, T. K. & Rockstrom, J. & Ramakrishna, Y. S., 2009. "Rainfed agriculture: past trends and future prospects," IWMI Books, Reports H041990, International Water Management Institute.
- Teklu, Tesfaye & von Braun, Joachim & Zaki, Elsayed & Ali, Ahmed, 1991. "Drought and famine relationships in Sudan: policy implications," Research reports 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:321-331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.