Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model
The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
- Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE, 2010. "Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 63-83.
- Hassan, R. M. & Hallam, Arne, 1996.
"Macro-Economic Linkages to Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model for Sudan,"
Staff General Research Papers
5157, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Rashid M. Hassan & Arne Hallam, 1996. "Macro-Economic Linkages To Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model For Sudan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1-4), pages 66-88.
- Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009.
"A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China,"
21127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
- S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, 03.
- Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Siddig, Khalid H.A., 2011.
"The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment,"
Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series
112971, University of Khartoum, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Khalid Hassan, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254.
- Khalid H.A. Siddig, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254, 09.
- Khalid Siddig, 2011. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," EcoMod2011 2737, EcoMod.
- Heather E. Thompson & Lea Berrang-Ford & James D. Ford, 2010. "Climate Change and Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(8), pages 2719-2733, August.
- Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Paper Series wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Tol, Richard S. J., 2008.
"The Economic Impact of Climate Change,"
WP255, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Teklu, Tesfaye & von Braun, Joachim & Zaki, Elsayed & Ali, Ahmed, 1991. "Drought and famine relationships in Sudan: policy implications," Research reports 88, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Maria Sassi, 2013.
"Impact of Climate Change and International Prices Uncertainty on the Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach,"
International Advances in Economic Research,
International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
- Sassi, Maria, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," Congress Papers 124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
- Siddig, Khalid H. A. & Babiker, Babiker Idris, 2012.
"Agricultural efficiency gains and trade liberalization in Sudan,"
African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,
African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 7(1), October.
- Siddig, Khalid H.A. & Babiker, Babiker Idris, 2011. "Agricultural Efficiency Gains and Trade Liberalization in Sudan," Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series 112786, University of Khartoum, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
- Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "Climate Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," NBER Working Papers 14132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Collier, Paul & Joshi, Vijay, 1989. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 94-113, Autumn.
- Raymond Torres, 2008. "The social impact of policies to address climate change: A review of the issues," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 147(2-3), pages 275-279, 06.
- Wani, S. P. & Sreedevi, T. K. & Rockstrom, J. & Ramakrishna, Y. S., 2009. "Rainfed agriculture: past trends and future prospects," IWMI Books, Reports H041990, International Water Management Institute.
- Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin MCKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2010. "The Environment and Climate Change: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:321-331. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.