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Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model

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  • Sassi, Maria
  • Cardaci, Alberto

Abstract

The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model," Congress Papers 124110, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieacp:124110
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/124110
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
    2. Rashid M. Hassan & Arne Hallam, 1996. "Macro-Economic Linkages To Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Model For Sudan," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1-4), pages 66-88.
    3. Khalid Hassan, 2012. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 24(3), pages 245-254.
    4. Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE, 2010. "Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 63-83.
    5. Thurlow, James & van Seventer, Dirk Ernst, 2002. "A standard computable general equilibrium model for South Africa," TMD discussion papers 100, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; food security; stochastic approach; cge; sudan; Environmental Economics and Policy; C68; Q18; Q54;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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