Impact Of Climate Change On Cereal Market And Food Security In Sudan: Stochastic Approach And Cge Model
The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting on a stochastic method and CGE model. The former provides the likely changes in sorghum, millet and wheat productivity and their probability of occurrence according to rainfall predictions based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the shocks simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the grater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
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- Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009.
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- Siddig, Khalid H.A., 2011. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," Agricultural Economics Working Paper Series 112971, University of Khartoum, Department of Agricultural Economics.
- Khalid Siddig, 2011. "The Controversy of Exchange Rate Devaluation in Sudan: An Economy-wide General Equilibrium Assessment," EcoMod2011 2737, EcoMod.
- Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE, 2010. "Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 5(1), pages 63-83. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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