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Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach

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  • Sassi, Maria

Abstract

The paper simulates the possible sorghum price change and the related probability of occurrence under different rainfall scenarios and in a context of price uncertainty on international markets. The empirical investigation is based on the stochastic approach. Results underline an expected increase in sorghum price under the effect of the high level of uncertainty in precipitation and in international market price; the most intense likely change produced by the international market price of sorghum uncertainty; the need to overcome the agricultural view in policy making in order to include a market perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Sassi, Maria, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change And International Prices Uncertainty On The Sudanese Sorghum Market: A Stochastic Approach," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124111, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieacp:124111
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.124111
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    2. Molua, Ernest L., 2002. "Climate variability, vulnerability and effectiveness of farm-level adaptation options: the challenges and implications for food security in Southwestern Cameroon," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 529-545, July.
    3. Ringler, Claudia & Zhu, Tingju & Cai, Ximing & Koo, Jawoo & Wang, Dingbao, 2010. "Climate change impacts on food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from comprehensive climate change scenarios," IFPRI discussion papers 1042, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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    Cited by:

    1. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.

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