IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/fpr/ifpric/174179.html

Climate change: Understanding impacts on agrifood systems and evaluating policy options

In: Global food policy report 2025: Food policy: Lessons and priorities for a changing world

Author

Listed:
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.
  • Bryan, Elizabeth
  • Thomas, Timothy S.
  • Wiebe, Keith D.

Abstract

Climate change is a major challenge of our time, with global and far-reaching effects on and from agriculture and food systems. This chapter reviews the evolution of research on climate change, food security, and food systems, reflecting on IFPRI’s major contributions to understanding and modeling climate change impacts and identifying promising policies and investments for mitigation and adaptation. Book link: ("https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174108")

Suggested Citation

  • Rosegrant, Mark W. & Bryan, Elizabeth & Thomas, Timothy S. & Wiebe, Keith D., 2025. "Climate change: Understanding impacts on agrifood systems and evaluating policy options," IFPRI book chapters, in: Global food policy report 2025: Food policy: Lessons and priorities for a changing world, chapter 4, pages 75-106, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifpric:174179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174179
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liverpool-Tasie, Saweda & Parkhi, Charuta M., 2020. "Climate risk, adaptation, and technology adoption in the midstream of crop value chains: Evidence from Nigerian maize traders," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304507, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2010. "Modelling farmers' adaptation strategies for climate change and variability: The case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 49(2), June.
    3. Glwadys A. Gbetibouo & Claudia Ringler & Rashid Hassan, 2010. "Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 175-187, August.
    4. Kumar, Neha & Raghunathan, Kalyani & Arrieta, Alejandra & Jilani, Amir & Pandey, Shinjini, 2021. "The power of the collective empowers women: Evidence from self-help groups in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    6. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Nature, Nature, vol. 527(7577), pages 235-239, November.
    7. Alessandro De Pinto & Greg Seymour & Elizabeth Bryan & Prapti Bhandari, 2020. "Women’s empowerment and farmland allocations in Bangladesh: evidence of a possible pathway to crop diversification," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 1025-1043, November.
    8. Henri Waisman & Christine Bataille & Harald Winkler & Frank Jotzo & Priyadarshi Shukla & Michel Colombier & Daniel Buira & Patrick Criqui & Manfred Fischedick & Mikiko Kainuma & Emilio La Rovere & Ste, 2019. "A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies," Post-Print hal-02079339, HAL.
    9. Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek D. & Laborde Debucquet, David & Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Rue, Christopher & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith D., 2018. "Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among alternative approaches," Issue briefs 978-089629-299-4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Cynthia Rosenzweig & Francesco Tubiello, 2007. "Adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture: an analysis of potential synergies," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(5), pages 855-873, June.
    11. Hertel, Thomas W. & de Lima, Cicero Z., 2020. "Viewpoint: Climate impacts on agriculture: Searching for keys under the streetlight," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Elizabeth Bryan & Claudia Ringler & Barrack Okoba & Jawoo Koo & Mario Herrero & Silvia Silvestri, 2013. "Can agriculture support climate change adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation and rural livelihoods? insights from Kenya," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 151-165, May.
    13. Samuel S. Myers & Antonella Zanobetti & Itai Kloog & Peter Huybers & Andrew D. B. Leakey & Arnold J. Bloom & Eli Carlisle & Lee H. Dietterich & Glenn Fitzgerald & Toshihiro Hasegawa & N. Michele Holbr, 2014. "Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition," Nature, Nature, vol. 510(7503), pages 139-142, June.
    14. Brown, Lynn R., 2018. "Aflatoxins in food and feed: Impacts risks, and management strategies," GCAN policy notes 9, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    16. Gerald C. Nelson & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Helal Ahammad & Elodie Blanc & Katherine Calvin & Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlik & Edwina Heyhoe & Page Kyle & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Martin Lampe & Daniel Ma, 2014. "Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(1), pages 85-101, January.
    17. Muntaha Rakib & Julia Anna Matz, 2016. "The Impact of Shocks on Gender-differentiated Asset Dynamics in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 377-395, March.
    18. Marshall Burke & W. Matthew Alampay Davis & Noah S. Diffenbaugh, 2018. "Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 557(7706), pages 549-553, May.
    19. Sulser, Timothy & Wiebe, Keith D. & Dunston, Shahnila & Cenacchi, Nicola & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Willenbockel, Dirk & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2021. "Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system," Food policy reports 9780896294165, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Khatri-Chhetri, Arun & Aggarwal, P.K. & Joshi, P.K. & Vyas, S., 2017. "Farmers' prioritization of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 184-191.
    21. Barooah, Prapti & Alvi, Muzna & Ringler, Claudia & Pathak, Vishal, 2023. "Gender, agriculture policies, and climate-smart agriculture in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    22. Donadelli, M. & Jüppner, M. & Riedel, M. & Schlag, C., 2017. "Temperature shocks and welfare costs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 331-355.
    23. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "How Sensitive Are Crop Yields To Price Changes And Farm Programs?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 25(01), pages 1-8, July.
    24. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    25. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    26. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    27. Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), 2018. "Climate Smart Agriculture," Natural Resource Management and Policy, Springer, number 978-3-319-61194-5, November.
    28. Pradeep Kurukulasuriya & Robert Mendelsohn & Rashid Hassan & James Benhin & Temesgen Deressa & Mbaye Diop & Helmy Mohamed Eid & K. Yerfi Fosu & Glwadys Gbetibouo & Suman Jain & Ali Mahamadou & Renneth, 2006. "Will African Agriculture Survive Climate Change?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 367-388.
    29. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    30. Henri Waisman & Chris Bataille & Harald Winkler & Frank Jotzo & Priyadarshi Shukla & Michel Colombier & Daniel Buira & Patrick Criqui & Manfred Fischedick & Mikiko Kainuma & Emilio Rovere & Steve Pye , 2019. "A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 261-268, April.
    31. Gray, Ian & Ingersoll, Christina & Msangi, Siwa & Nelson, Gerald C. & Palazzo, Amanda & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Tokgoz, Simla & You, Liangzhi , 2010. "Food security, farming, and climate change to 2050: Scenarios, results, policy options," Research reports Gerald C. Nelson, et al., International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    32. John Hassler & Conny Olovsson, 2019. "Integrated Assessment in a Multi-region World with Multiple Energy Sources and Endogenous Technical Change," 2019 Meeting Papers 809, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    33. Jalloh, Abdulai & Nelson, Gerald C. & Roy-Macauley, Harold & Thomas, Timothy S. & Zougmoré, Robert, 2013. "West african agriculture and climate change: A comprehensive analysis," Issue briefs 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    34. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    35. Ringler, Claudia & Alvi, Muzna & Birner, Regina & Bosch, Christine & Bryan, Elizabeth & Githuku, Fridah & Meinzen-Dick, Ruth S. & Rwamigisa, Patience B. & Shah, Mansi, 2023. "Reaching smallholder women with information services and resilience strategies to respond to climate change," IFPRI books, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), number 137090.
    36. Lint Barrage, 2020. "Optimal Dynamic Carbon Taxes in a Climate–Economy Model with Distortionary Fiscal Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 1-39.
    37. repec:fpr:ifprib:9780896292055 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Tao Xiang & Tariq H. Malik & Jack W. Hou & Jiliang Ma, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: A Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis, 1961–2013," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, December.
    39. Choi, Jung-Sup & Helmberger, Peter G., 1993. "How Sensitive are Crop Yields to Price Changes and Farm Programs?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 237-244, July.
    40. Saleemul Huq & Hannah Reid & Mama Konate & Atiq Rahman & Youba Sokona & Florence Crick, 2004. "Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs)," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 25-43, March.
    41. Michael K. Ndegwa & Apurba Shee & Calum G. Turvey & Liangzhi You, 2020. "Uptake of insurance-embedded credit in presence of credit rationing: evidence from a randomized controlled trial in Kenya," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 80(5), pages 745-766, June.
    42. repec:ags:ijag24:347291 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Hassan, Rashid M. & Nhemachena, Charles, 2008. "Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: Multinomial choice analysis," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(01), pages 1-22, March.
    44. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    45. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    46. Yeyoung Lee & Beliyou Haile & Greg Seymour & Carlo Azzarri, 2021. "The heat never bothered me anyway: Gender‐specific response of agricultural labor to climatic shocks in Tanzania," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 43(2), pages 732-749, June.
    47. Glwadys A. Gbetibouo & Claudia Ringler & Rashid Hassan, 2010. "Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34, pages 175-187, August.
    48. Maulik Jagnani & Christopher B Barrett & Yanyan Liu & Liangzhi You, 2021. "Within-Season Producer Response to Warmer Temperatures: Defensive Investments by Kenyan Farmers [Sequential decision making in production models]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 392-419.
    49. Mwongera, Caroline & Shikuku, Kelvin M. & Twyman, Jennifer & Läderach, Peter & Ampaire, Edidah & Van Asten, Piet & Twomlow, Steve & Winowiecki, Leigh A., 2017. "Climate smart agriculture rapid appraisal (CSA-RA): A tool for prioritizing context-specific climate smart agriculture technologies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 192-203.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gregory Casey & Stephie Fried & Ethan Goode, 2023. "Projecting the Impact of Rising Temperatures: The Role of Macroeconomic Dynamics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 688-718, September.
    2. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Harding, Anthony & Moreno-Cruz, Juan & Quaas, Martin & Rickels, Wilfried & Smulders, Sjak, 2025. "Distribution of climate damages in convergence-consistent growth projections," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Casey, Gregory & Fried, Stephie & Gibson, Matthew, 2024. "Understanding climate damages: Consumption versus investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and urban green total factor productivity: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PA).
    6. Meierrieks, Daniel & Stadelmann, David, 2024. "Is temperature adversely related to economic development? Evidence on the short-run and the long-run links from sub-national data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 136, pages 1-18.
    7. Caggese, Andrea & Chiavari, Andrea & Goraya, Sampreet & Villegas‑Sanchez, Carolina, 2025. "Climate change, firms and aggregate productivity," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 132.
    8. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2024. "Big news: Climate-disaster expectations and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Behr, Daniela Monika & Shen, Liang & Tribin Uribe, Ana Maria & Trumbic, Tea, 2025. "Temperature Anomalies as an Obstacle to Women’s Rights and Economic Empowerment?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11206, The World Bank.
    10. Deng, Huai & Wu, Xianhua & Xu, Hui & Zhang, Dawei, 2024. "Aggregated economic damages and the role of dynamic carbon tax under climate change: A dynamic general equilibrium model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1099-1119.
    11. Olper, Alessandro & Maugeri, Maurizio & Manara, Veronica & Raimondi, Valentina, 2021. "Weather, climate and economic outcomes: Evidence from Italy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    12. Sam Fankhauser, 2017. "Adaptation to Climate Change," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 209-230, October.
    13. Huai Deng & Huan Wu & Hui Xu, 2025. "Social cost of carbon under endogenous social adaptation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(4), pages 1-20, April.
    14. Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio & Damania, Richard, 2025. "Modelling global water policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 407-427.
    15. Kumar, Naveen, 2025. "Beyond GDP: Quantifying Heterogeneous Impact of Climate Change on Well-being and Social Progress," SocArXiv j5kyc_v1, Center for Open Science.
    16. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Climate Shocks, Intimate Partner Violence, and the Protective Role of Climate-Resilience Projects," IZA Discussion Papers 17529, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Lehr, Jakob & Rehdanz, Katrin, 2024. "The effect of temperature on energy related CO2 emissions and economic performance in German industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    18. Richard S.J. Tol, 2025. "Climate Determinism Reborn," Working Paper Series 0725, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    19. Breckenfelder, Johannes & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Olovsson, Conny & Popov, Alexander & Porcellacchia, Davide & Schepens, Glenn, 2023. "The climate and the economy," Working Paper Series 2793, European Central Bank.
    20. Prabhu Pingali & Anaka Aiyar & Mathew Abraham & Andaleeb Rahman, 2019. "Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India," Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-030-14409-8, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:ifpric:174179. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.