IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/fprepo/9780896294165.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system

Author

Listed:
  • Sulser, Timothy
  • Wiebe, Keith D.
  • Dunston, Shahnila
  • Cenacchi, Nicola
  • Nin-Pratt, Alejandro
  • Mason-D’Croz, Daniel
  • Robertson, Richard D.
  • Willenbockel, Dirk
  • Rosegrant, Mark W.

Abstract

This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hunger in 2050 relative to a no-climate-change future, over half of them in Africa south of the Sahara. Increased investments can offset these impacts. Achieving this would require that annual investment in international agricultural research increase from US$1.62 billion to US$2.77 billion per year between 2015 and 2050. Additional water and infrastructure investments are estimated to be more expensive than agricultural R&D at about US$12.7 billion and US$10.8 billion per year, respectively, but these address key gaps to support transformation toward food system resiliency. Findings on ranges of costs and trade-offs and complementarities across SDGs will help policymakers make better-informed choices between alternative investment strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sulser, Timothy & Wiebe, Keith D. & Dunston, Shahnila & Cenacchi, Nicola & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Robertson, Richard D. & Willenbockel, Dirk & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2021. "Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system," Food policy reports 9780896294165, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:fprepo:9780896294165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/cdmref/p15738coll2/id/134423/filename/134634.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tanya O'Garra & Susana Mourato, 2016. "Are we willing to give what it takes? Willingness to pay for climate change adaptation in developing countries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 249-264, September.
    2. Charlotte Janssens & Petr Havlík & Tamás Krisztin & Justin Baker & Stefan Frank & Tomoko Hasegawa & David Leclère & Sara Ohrel & Shaun Ragnauth & Erwin Schmid & Hugo Valin & Nicole Van Lipzig & Miet M, 2020. "Global hunger and climate change adaptation through international trade," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(9), pages 829-835, September.
    3. Tol, Richard S. J., 2005. "The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(16), pages 2064-2074, November.
    4. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wiebe, Keith D. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2021. "Climate change and agricultural development," IFPRI book chapters, in: Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world, chapter 19, pages 629-660, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Fan, Shenggen & Headey, Derek D. & Laborde Debucquet, David & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Rue, Christopher & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith D., 2018. "Quantifying the cost and benefits of ending hunger and undernutrition: Examining the differences among alternative approaches," Issue briefs 978-089629-299-4, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Uris Lantz C. Baldos & Keith O. Fuglie & Thomas W. Hertel, 2020. "The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(2), pages 207-220, March.
    7. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 12750, The World Bank Group.
    8. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    9. Robinson, Sherman & Mason d'Croz, Daniel & Islam, Shahnila & Sulser, Timothy B. & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju & Gueneau, Arthur & Pitois, Gauthier & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2015. "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3:," IFPRI discussion papers 1483, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    10. Roberto Esposti & Pierpaolo Pierani, 2003. "Building the Knowledge Stock: Lags, Depreciation, and Uncertainty in R&D Investment and Link with Productivity Growth," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 33-58, January.
    11. Samuel Fankhauser, 2010. "The costs of adaptation," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(1), pages 23-30, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hirte, Georg & Nitzsche, Eric & Tscharaktschiew, Stefan, 2018. "Optimal adaptation in cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 147-169.
    2. Alejandro Nin‐Pratt, 2021. "Agricultural R&D investment intensity: A misleading conventional measure and a new intensity index," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(2), pages 317-328, March.
    3. Kozicka, Marta & Gotor, Elisabetta & Ocimati, Walter & de Jager, Tamar & Kikulwe, Enoch & Groot, Jeroen C.J., 2020. "Responding to future regime shifts with agrobiodiversity: A multi-level perspective on small-scale farming in Uganda," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    4. Mason-D'Croz, Daniel & Sulser, Timothy B. & Wiebe, Keith & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Lowder, Sarah K. & Nin-Pratt, Alejandro & Willenbockel, Dirk & Robinson, Sherman & Zhu, Tingju & Cenacchi, Nicola & Duns, 2019. "Agricultural investments and hunger in Africa modeling potential contributions to SDG2 – Zero Hunger," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 38-53.
    5. Pycroft, Jonathan & Vergano, Lucia & Hope, Chris & Paci, Daniele & Ciscar, Juan Carlos, 2011. "A tale of tails: Uncertainty and the social cost of carbon dioxide," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    6. Liu, Xuewei & Yuan, Zengwei & Xu, Yuan & Jiang, Songyan, 2017. "Greening cement in China: A cost-effective roadmap," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 233-244.
    7. Söderholm, Patrik & Pettersson, Fredrik, 2008. "Climate policy and the social cost of power generation: Impacts of the Swedish national emissions target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 4154-4158, November.
    8. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
    9. Calvin Atewamba & Edward R Rhodes, 2020. "Biophysical and Economic Factors of Climate Change Impact Chain in the Agriculture Sector of ECOWAS," Chapters, in: Abdelhadi Makan (ed.), Environmental Health - Management and Prevention Practices, IntechOpen.
    10. Richard Tol, 2012. "On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(1), pages 97-116, September.
    11. Duk Hee Lee & Il Won Seo & Ho Chull Choe & Hee Dae Kim, 2012. "Collaboration network patterns and research performance: the case of Korean public research institutions," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 91(3), pages 925-942, June.
    12. Wenbin Wang & Mark E. Ferguson & Shanshan Hu & Gilvan C. Souza, 2013. "Dynamic Capacity Investment with Two Competing Technologies," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 15(4), pages 616-629, October.
    13. Vincent Smith & Justus H. H. Wesseler & David Zilberman, 2021. "New Plant Breeding Technologies: An Assessment of the Political Economy of the Regulatory Environment and Implications for Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Rosegrant, Mark W. & Wiebe, Keith D. & Sulser, Timothy B. & Mason-D’Croz, Daniel & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2021. "Climate change and agricultural development," IFPRI book chapters, in: Agricultural development: New perspectives in a changing world, chapter 19, pages 629-660, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Prosinger, J. & Suhardiman, Diana & Giordano, M., 2015. "Linking climate change discourse with climate change policy in the Mekong: the case of Lao PDR," Book Chapters,, International Water Management Institute.
    16. Figge, Frank & Hahn, Tobias & Barkemeyer, Ralf, 2014. "The If, How and Where of assessing sustainable resource use," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 274-283.
    17. Pangapanga, Phiriinnocent & Thangalimodzi, Lucy Tembo, 2012. "Participation in pro poor agro based enterprises in Malawi: do households’ poverty levels change automatically?," MPRA Paper 39446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Benjamin Jones & Michael Keen & Jon Strand, 2013. "Fiscal implications of climate change," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(1), pages 29-70, February.
    19. Lehmann, Paul & Gawel, Erik, 2013. "Why should support schemes for renewable electricity complement the EU emissions trading scheme?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 597-607.
    20. Reinhard Mechler & Laurens Bouwer, 2015. "Understanding trends and projections of disaster losses and climate change: is vulnerability the missing link?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 23-35, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WORLD; agrifood systems; climate change; agriculture; food systems; investment; costs; hunger; food security;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:fprepo:9780896294165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.