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Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

  • Channing Arndt
  • William Farmer
  • Kenneth Strzepek
  • James Thurlow

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2012.00669.x
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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (08)
Pages: 378-393

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:16:y:2012:i:3:p:378-393
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  1. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
  2. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 795-804.
  3. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," Working Paper Series wp2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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