IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania


  • Arndt, Channing
  • Farmer, William
  • Strzepek, Kenneth
  • Thurlow, James


The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Farmer, William & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2012. "Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6188, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6188

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Pauw, Karl & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Agricultural growth, poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 795-804.
    2. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Nelson, Gerald C. & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Koo, Jawoo & Robertson, Richard & Sulser, Timothy & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia & Msangi, Siwa & Palazzo, Amanda & Batka, Miroslav & Magalhaes, Marilia & Va, 2009. "Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation," Food policy reports 21, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. World Bank, 2010. "Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 12750, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    2. Lord Andzie-Quainoo & Robin Grier, 2014. "Tropical Agriculture: Is Africa Different?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 640-654, November.
    3. Ning An & Paul J. Thomassin, 2016. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cash Crop Farms in Québec and Ontario," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-31, CIRANO.
    4. Winfrida Mayilla & Bernard Keraita & Helena Ngowi & Flemming Konradsen & Flavianus Magayane, 2017. "Perceptions of using low-quality irrigation water in vegetable production in Morogoro, Tanzania," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 165-183, February.
    5. Van Aelst, Katrien & Holvoet, Nathalie, 2016. "Intersections of Gender and Marital Status in Accessing Climate Change Adaptation: Evidence from Rural Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-50.
    6. Rodrigues, Joao & Thurlow, James & Landman, Willem & Ringler, Claudia & Robertson, Richard D. & Zhu, Tingju, 2016. "The economic value of seasonal forecasts stochastic economywide analysis for East Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1546, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Alton Theresa & Arndt Channing & Gebretsadik Yohannes & Hartley Faaiqa & Makrelov Konstantin & Strzepek Kenneth & Thurlow James & Schlosser C. Adam & Gabriel Sherwin & Cullis James & Cartwright Anton , 2015. "An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Arslan, Aslihan & Belotti, Federico & Lipper, Leslie, 2017. "Smallholder productivity and weather shocks: Adoption and impact of widely promoted agricultural practices in Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 68-81.
    9. Hugh Wenban-Smith & Anja Faße & Ulrike Grote, 2016. "Food security in Tanzania: the challenge of rapid urbanisation," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 973-984, October.
    10. Mintewab Bezabih & Remidius Ruhinduka & Mare Sarr, 2016. "Climate change perception and system of rice intensification (SRI) impact on dispersion and downside risk: a moment approximation approach," GRI Working Papers 256, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

    More about this item


    Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Regional Economic Development; Science of Climate Change; Food&Beverage Industry;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.