IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unu/wpaper/wp2010-101.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique

Author

Listed:
  • Arndt, Channing
  • Strzepeck, Kenneth
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Thurlow, James
  • Fant, Charles
  • Wright, Len

Abstract

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modelling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US$2.3 to US$7.4 billion during 2003– 50. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management and the regional coordination of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-101
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/wp2010-101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jensen, Tarp & Tarp, Finn, 2007. "Agricultural Technology and Marketing Margins in Vietnam," MPRA Paper 29820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Arndt, Channing & Benfica, Rui & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Uaiene, Rafael, 2010. "Biofuels, poverty, and growth: a computable general equilibrium analysis of Mozambique," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(01), pages 81-105, February.
    3. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Channing Arndt & William Farmer & Kenneth Strzepek & James Thurlow, 2012. "Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 378-393, August.
    2. James Thurlow & Paul Dorosh & Winston Yu, 2012. "A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 412-428, August.
    3. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 205-225, April.
    4. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    5. Sherman Robinson & Dirk Willenbockel & Kenneth Strzepek, 2012. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 489-502, August.
    6. Charles Fant & Yohannes Gebretsadik & Alyssa McCluskey & Kenneth Strzepek, 2015. "An uncertainty approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the Zambezi River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 35-48, May.
    7. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers dp-11-09-efd, Resources For the Future.
    8. Arndt, Channing, 2011. "Foreign Assistance in a Climate-Constrained World," WIDER Working Paper Series 066, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Channing Arndt & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2015. "The Economic Costs of Climate Change: A Multi-Sector Impact Assessment for Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, April.
    10. Channing Arndt & James Thurlow, 2015. "Climate uncertainty and economic development: evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 130(1), pages 63-75, May.
    11. Fant, Charles & Schlosser, C. Adam, 2013. "The Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Solar Resources in Southern Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Alton Theresa & Arndt Channing & Gebretsadik Yohannes & Hartley Faaiqa & Makrelov Konstantin & Strzepek Kenneth & Thurlow James & Schlosser C. Adam & Gabriel Sherwin & Cullis James & Cartwright Anton , 2015. "An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 045, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Channing Arndt & Paul Chinowsky & Sherman Robinson & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2012. "Economic Development under Climate Change," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 369-377, August.
    14. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Climate-Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Markets: Combining a Micro-Level Structural Land-Use Model and a Market-Level Equilibrium Model," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205128, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    15. Fernández, Francisco J. & Blanco, Maria, 2014. "Integration of biophysical and agro-economic models to assess the economic effects of climate change on agriculture: A review of global and EU regional approaches," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-48, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Kan, Iddo & Kimhi, Ayal & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2015. "Micro-Macro Impacts of Climate-Change on Agriculture and Food Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211828, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Arndt, Channing & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 092, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Robinson, Sherman, 2013. "Contribution of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling to Policy Formulation in Developing Countries," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; gender; women entrepreneurs; Africa;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2010-101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mauricio Roa Grisales). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/widerfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.