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Generating global crop distribution maps: from census to grid

Author

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  • You, Liangzhi
  • Wood, Stanley
  • Wood-Sichra, Ulrike

Abstract

In order to evaluate food security, technology potential and the environmental impacts of production in a strategic and regional context, it is critical to have reliable information on the spatial distribution and coincidence of people, agricultural production, and environmental services. This paper proposes a spatial allocation model for generating highly disaggregated, crop-specific production data by a triangulation of any and all relevant background and partial information. This includes national or sub-national crop production statistics, satellite data on land cover, maps of irrigated areas, biophysical crop suitability assessments, population density, secondary data on irrigation and rainfed production systems, cropping intensity, and crop prices. This information is compiled and integrated to generate "prior" estimates of the spatial distribution of individual crops. Priors are then submitted to an optimization model that uses cross-entropy principles and area and production accounting constraints to simultaneously allocate crops into the individual pixels of a GIS database. The result for each pixel (notionally of any size, but typically from 25 to 100 square km) is the area and production of each crop produced, split by the shares grown under irrigated, high-input rainfed, low-input rainfed conditions (each with distinct yield levels). Tested in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, the spatial allocation model is applied here to generate a global distribution of crop area and production for 20 major crops (wheat, rice, maize, barley, millet, sorghum, potato, sweet potato, cassava and yams, plantain and banana, soybean, dry beans, other pulse, sugar cane, sugar beets, coffee, cotton, other fibres, groundnuts, and other oil crops). The detailed spatial datasets represent a truly unique and extremely rich platform for exploring the social, economic and environmental consequences of agricultural production in a strategic policy context.

Suggested Citation

  • You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike, 2006. "Generating global crop distribution maps: from census to grid," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21299, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21299
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21299
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Genti Kostandini & Bradford F. Mills & Steven Were Omamo & Stanley Wood, 2009. ""Ex ante" analysis of the benefits of transgenic drought tolerance research on cereal crops in low-income countries," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, pages 477-492.
    2. You, Liangzhi & Ringler, Claudia & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Robertson, Richard & Wood, Stanley & Zhu, Tingju & Nelson, Gerald & Guo, Zhe & Sun, Yan, 2011. "What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 770-782.
    3. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 27(3), November.
    4. Nelson, Gerald C., 2002. "Introduction to the special issue on spatial analysis for agricultural economists," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, pages 197-200.
    5. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    6. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley, 2006. "An entropy approach to spatial disaggregation of agricultural production," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 90(1-3), pages 329-347, October.
    7. Bruno Losch & Sandrine Fréguin-Gresh & Eric Thomas White, 2012. "Structural Transformation and Rural Change Revisited : Challenges for Late Developing Countries in a Globalizing World
      [Transformations rurales et développement : Les défis du changement structurel
      ," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 12482.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:agiwat:v:193:y:2017:i:c:p:251-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Xavier, Antonio & Martins, Maria de Belem Costa Freitas & Fragoso, Rui Manuel de Sousa, 2011. "Recovery of Incomplete Data of Statistical Livestock Number Applying an Entropy Approach," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 115790, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Kazi Ahmed & Guiling Wang & Miao Yu & Jawoo Koo & Liangzhi You, 2015. "Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(2), pages 321-334, November.
    4. repec:wbk:wbpubs:27526 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:agisys:v:153:y:2017:i:c:p:212-220 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Iimi,Atsushi & You,Liangzhi & Wood-Sichra,Ulrike & Humphrey,Richard Martin, 2015. "Agriculture production and transport infrastructure in east Africa : an application of spatial autoregression," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7281, The World Bank.
    7. Fjelde, Hanne, 2015. "Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 525-534.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

    JEL classification:

    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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