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Ex-Ante Analysis of the Benefits of Transgenic Drought Tolerance Research on Cereal Crops in Low-Income Countries

Author

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  • Kostandini, Genti
  • Mills, Bradford F.
  • Omamo, Steven Were
  • Wood, Stanley

Abstract

This paper examines the ex-ante benefits of transgenic research on drought in eight developing countries, including the potential magnitude of private sector profits. The framework employs country-specific agroecological-drought risk zones and considers both yield increases and yield variance reductions when estimating producer and consumer benefits from research. Risk benefits from yield variance reductions are shown to be an important component of aggregate drought research benefits, representing 41 percent of total benefits across the eight countries. Further, estimated annual benefits of $US 93 million to the private sector suggest that significant incentives exist for private sector participation in varietal drought tolerance research.

Suggested Citation

  • Kostandini, Genti & Mills, Bradford F. & Omamo, Steven Were & Wood, Stanley, 2007. "Ex-Ante Analysis of the Benefits of Transgenic Drought Tolerance Research on Cereal Crops in Low-Income Countries," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon 9940, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea07:9940
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.9940
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    2. Genti Kostandini & Roberto La Rovere & Zhe Guo, 2016. "Ex Ante Welfare Analysis of Technological Change: The Case of Nitrogen Efficient Maize for African Soils," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(1), pages 147-168, March.
    3. Carl Pray & Latha Nagarajan & Luping Li & Jikun Huang & Ruifa Hu & K.N. Selvaraj & Ora Napasintuwong & R. Chandra Babu, 2011. "Potential Impact of Biotechnology on Adaption of Agriculture to Climate Change: The Case of Drought Tolerant Rice Breeding in Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 3(10), pages 1-19, September.
    4. Wanjira, John K. & Mburu, John I. & Nzuve, Felister M. & Makokha, Stella & Emongor, Rosemary A. & Taracha, Catheline, . "Impact of climate-smart maize varieties on household income among smallholder farmers in Kenya: The case of Embu County," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(3).
    5. Paul, Laura A., "undated". "The Downside of Good Rains: Drought Risk and WTP for Maize with Weather Contingent Advantages," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274471, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Malacarne, J.G. & Paul, L.A., 2022. "Do the benefits of improved management practices to nutritional outcomes “dry up” in the presence of drought? Evidence from East Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Kostandini, Genti & Abdoulaye, Tahirou & Erenstein, Olaf & Sonder, Kai & Gou, Zhe & Setimela, Peter & Menkir, Abebe, 2015. "Potential Impacts of Drought Tolerant Maize: New Evidence from Farm-trials in Eastern and Southern Africa," 89th Annual Conference, April 13-15, 2015, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 204219, Agricultural Economics Society.
    8. Tommaso Sonno & Davide Zufacchi, 2025. "Large-scale land acquisitions: Trees, trade and structural change," CEP Discussion Papers dp2075, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    9. Huang, Jikun, 2013. "Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change with a Specific Focus on Foreign Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series 047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Bisen, Jaiprakash & Kandpal, Ankita & Jain, Rajni & Mo, Biswajit & Kumar, GAK & Nayak, Amaresh Kumar, 2025. "Economic Evaluation of Climate-Resilient Rice Varieties," Policy Papers 396194, ICAR National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP).
    11. Birthal, Pratap Singh & Nigam, Shyam N. & Narayanan, A.V. & Kareem, K.A., 2012. "Potential Economic Benefits from Adoption of Improved Drought-tolerant Groundnut in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(01), June.
    12. Birthal, Pratap S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin & Agarwal, Shaily, 2015. "Is Indian agriculture becoming resilient to droughts? Evidence from rice production systems," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-12.
    13. Laura A Paul, 2021. "Heterogeneous and conditional returns from DT maize for farmers in Southern Africa [Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(5), pages 1224-1248.
    14. You, Liangzhi & Wood, Stanley & Wood-Sichra, Ulrike & Wu, Wenbin, 2014. "Generating global crop distribution maps: From census to grid," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 53-60.
    15. Kostandini, Genti & La Rovere, Roberto & Abdoulaye, Tahirou, 2013. "Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 213-226.
    16. Jikun Huang, 2013. "Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change with a Specific Focus on Foreign Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-047, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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